11

April

Some 1st round Trade-Up Scenarios for Packers GM Ted Thompson

Packers GM Ted Thompson Trade-Up NFL Draft

Hmmmmm, who can I hoodwink?

With the Packers already holding the maximum 12 picks in the upcoming 2012 NFL Draft, the odds would seem to favor seeing the Packers trade-up in one of the early rounds, in exchange for giving up multiple picks in later rounds.

Of course, with Ted Thompson, that’s only going to happen if a player he covets is unexpectedly within reach, but unlikely to last until the Packers’ next selection (ala Clay Matthews).

Coincidentally, this article comes on the heels of one by our own Thomas Hobbes on how the new CBA makes it more economically feasible to trade up.

So, using the trade value chart (those that wish to argue the relevance/accuracy of this chart should weigh in on the comments on this article, not here), lets take a look at a few trades that make sense for the Packers in Round1.

1st round trade #1:

The Packers trade their 1st (28), 3rd (90) and 4th (123) to the Tennessee Titans for their 1st (20). The trade value numbers are 849 on the Packers side and 850 for the Titans, almost a perfect match.

The Titans, holding only seven picks, look to add more depth in exchange for dropping down eight spots. The Packers, eager to add new starting-caliber talent on defense, swoop in to select Fletcher Cox, Whitney Mercilus, Mark Barron, Dre Kirkpatrick or Stephon Gilmore.

This would be a significant move for Ted Thompson, and would mean he sees a GREAT value in the guy that has unexpectedly dropped to 20. That would probably mean someone like Cox or Barron. The best part about this scenario is the packers keep their second round pick.

1st Round trade # 2:

The Packers trade their 1st (28), 4th (123) and 6th(197) to the Denver Broncos for their 1st (25).  The trade value numbers are 721 on the Packers side and 720 for the Broncos.

The Broncos, with only 8 picks in the draft, increase that number to 10, while still getting one of the top 3 on their board when they would have normally picked. The Packers give up surplus picks to jump ahead of the Texans and Patriots, two teams likely looking for linebacker help.

Thus, the Packers are able to get the best linebacker still available on their board, perhaps Dont’a Hightower, who the Packers think could even convert to OLB,  or Courtney Upshaw, who many feel will be dropping into the late first.

With two other 4th round picks and four 7th round picks, the Packers give up little to secure the linebacker help they need.

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Jersey Al Bracco is the founder and editor of AllGreenBayPackers.com, and the co-founder of Packers Talk Radio Network. He can be heard as one of the Co-Hosts on Cheesehead Radio and is the Green Bay Packers Draft Analyst for Drafttek.com.

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46 Responses to “Some 1st round Trade-Up Scenarios for Packers GM Ted Thompson”

  1. JimR_in_DC says:

    I like these scenarios, Al. I really hope that Ted sees an excellent opportunity to get and impact player on defense and seizes it!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

  2. Tarynfor12 Tarynfor 12 says:

    I don’t see the chart value being in play the same as it was under the old CBA.I also believe that any move up for TT in the 1st rd of 5 spot or more,the price tag will begin with our 2nd round pick because of the new CBA signing caps of 1st rd picks.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

  3. ThomasMagnumPI ThomasMagnumPI says:

    I think that green bay is in an excellent spot to trade their 1st round pick. If people have been keeping up with the comments sections for the past few months, its pretty clear what I think about trading out of pick 28.

    Do we all agree that trading GB’s 4th round pick makes a lot of sense, since they have 2 compensatory picks to use at the end of the 4th anyhow?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

    • PackersRS says:

      I want GB to be picking in the early 2nd, mid 2nd and early 3rd. Best value of the draft is in there IMO.

      Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 19 Thumb down 0

  4. Turophile says:

    I am still betting on a trade down as being more likely. For example, Green Bay trade with Jax. Our first (#28) and 3rd (#90) and a 7th for Jax’s 2nd(#38), 3rd (#70), and 5th (142). Value is about even.

    Jax (at #28) get their C Konz or OT Martin or Mercilus. Packer get the choice of many possibles, maybe Zeitler, Curry or Branch at #38 and they get a valuable high third and extra 5th for picks or further trades. There is always good value in trading down a few spots in the first, unless you feel like you drop off from one plateau of talent to a significantly lower level.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 5

    • Jersey Al Jersey Al says:

      Normally, I would agree, but I don’t think this is the year to do that. I’ve also gotten the feeling that ted feels the urgency to improve the defense immediately (hence the Muir/Hargrove signings) and that will carry over into the draft. I think he’s looking for 1-2 sure starters on defense.

      Jax has only 7 draft picks – can’t see them trading unless it’s for more picks (stay tuned for my second round trade scenarios to follow in a day or two)

      Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

      • Shawn says:

        I would like to see TT trade back out of the 1st round if he can picking up a few more picks and then trading some of our lower picks that we had as well as the ones we picked up by moving back to trade up into the 2nd or 3rd rounds. We could end up with 4 or 5 picks between the 2nd and 3rd rounds, exactly where we need them, and still have the two 4th round comp picks. If he could pull that off we could fill all sorts of needs.

        Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2

  5. Joshua Ray says:

    I want Mark Barron, if nick doesn’t return.. But we do need pass rush BIGTIME! So i dunno, in Ted we trust..

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

  6. SchenySchen says:

    Miami has two early 3rd round picks. I would love to use our 4th/5th/6th to move up into one of those spots. I think the value will be in the 2nd/early 3rd round as well so trading back a few from 28 to pick up another 2nd is also something I support.GoPack!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

  7. Bubbaloo says:

    Nobody’s talking about the “possibility” that James Jones could be a part of a trade. I’ve been predicting it since he re-signed last year and still believe it’ll happen. What will they do with Gurley, Bell, and Driver if he returns which it sounds like he may? Someone’s gotta go.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2

    • Bubbaloo says:

      Sorry, that was meant to say Borel, NOT Bell.

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    • SchenySchen says:

      For one of Miami’s early 3rd round picks perhaps. I have thought of that as well. We are both geniuses.GoPack!

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

    • PackersRS says:

      What’s his value? From what happened in FA I’d say he’s more valuable to GB than anyone else. Consider the recent trades, Jones would net a 6th.

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

      • Jersey Al Jersey Al says:

        Nobody’s talking about it because it pretty unlikely. Unless we’re talking 4-6th round pick, but MM likes to hoard receivers, so I don’t think so. Jones is very good insurance.

        Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    • Thomas Hobbes Thomas Hobbes says:

      No one is going to trade for Jones. Why trade for Jones when you could have gotten him on during free agency last year without having to give up a pick? It’s not like Jones did anything spectacular to raise his value.

      Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  8. SchenySchen says:

    Does anyone else think the “Hmmmmmm..who can I hoodwink” caption under TT is perfect and hilarious, or is it just me? GoPack!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  9. Oppy says:

    I’m pretty sure that if you timed it juuust right, you could hornswaggle TT into a clearly unfavorable trade with the promise and lure of a nice, cold Mint Julep in a tall glass with a straw.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

  10. Wiscokid says:

    Al, after your sparkling prognostication of last years draft, I’m going with whatever you have to say :)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  11. Ron LC says:

    I like the move up idea Al. Have no clue who the choice would be, but I hope he’d be a rightsided CM3.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  12. cow42 says:

    do whatever the hell you have to do to get shea mcclellin.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  13. martha hess says:

    OLB McClellin is who Ted wants. But he will get him at #33. Here is the block-buster deal: Green Bay gives Indianapolis: Its first pick 28 (value: 660); its second pick (value: 300) total: 960. Indianapolis gives us: its second round pick: (value: 580) its third round pick (value: 265) its fourth round pick (value: 112) total: 957. Green Bay gets the “first round pick in rounds 2-3-4. We total 13 total picks: first pick 2nd; 2 thirds; 4 fourths!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 2

    • Jersey Al Jersey Al says:

      not bad, but you can’t have 13 picks. So there would need to be a tradeup somewhere along the line or a trade of picks for a current player.

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

      • Lucas says:

        Where’s the rule about 13 draft picks? I tried finding it online and couldn’t. I thought it was simply a Madden Football thing.

        Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

        • Jersey Al Jersey Al says:

          Lucas – I got a clarification on that. No team can be awarded a number of compensation picks that would put them over 12 picks total.

          But that does NOT preclude a team like the Packers, who go in with the 12 max, from trading down and accumulating more picks.

          This is news to me, so I’m glad you asked and I’m glad we got it cleared up.

          Al

          Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    • Jersey Al Jersey Al says:

      Martha,

      My apologies for being wrong on that. I’ve gotten clarification on that. As I said to Lucas:

      No team can be awarded a number of compensation picks that would put them over 12 picks total.

      But that does NOT preclude a team like the Packers, who go in with the 12 max, from trading down and accumulating more picks.

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  14. Zack says:

    they probably won’t have to move at all to get mclellin huh? He’s projected early second round so we could get him at 28 in the first

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

  15. martha hess says:

    The Colts like the deal because they get 2 first round draft picks: Ted likes the deal because he gets McClellin. By the way Ted told me the rest of his picks: 2nd Round: McClellin OLB; 3rd round: Alameda Ta’amu NT; Billy Winn DE; 4th round: Josh Robinson CB; Jeff Allen LT; Zerbrie Sanders LT; Mike Harris CB; Fifth Round:Vontaze Burfict ILB; Sixth Round: Josh Oglesby RT; Seventh Round: Russel Wilson QB; Jeff Demps HB; Ronnie Hillman HB; DeMario Davis OLB;

    Hello Dynasty!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  16. Dan says:

    14 days untill round one boys, I can’t wait

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  17. DickJensen says:

    I would love to see either of those trades. I also agree that there is a ton of value in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, so adding more picks in those rounds would also be good.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  18. nick perry says:

    Excellent thoughts Al! I hope it happens. With scenario #2 I’m right there with you. I keep thinking the Pats are going to swoop in and take the player T.T. really wants. I think the Texans may go for a receiver, like the kid from Baylor. But with either of these trades the Packers could help themselves. Thanks Al, now give Ted a call to discuss!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  19. BirdDogUni says:

    Hey Al ~ Long time… See you’re doing well! The more I look at the 1st round the more confused I get. I just don’t see that guy that I can’t live without. I see some great value between #28-#45… I don’t care if TT trades up or down or stays put… (Though I expect him to move around quite a bit : ) Would love to get a difference maker at ROLB, and DE… Hoping Collins comes back, he’ll make all the difference in the world…

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  20. [...] other day we looked at possible first round trades for the Packers. Today we dip into the second round for some moves that might makes sense for Green [...]

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