How Have the Mike McCarthy Packers Fared After the Bye Week?
With no Green Bay Packers football this weekend, I turned my thinking to the rest of this regular season. As was mentioned in Marques Eversoll’s column, the Packers’ remaining schedule after the bye week appears to be another tough road ahead.
Featured are most of their divisional matchups with a rematch of last year’s playoff game against the New York Giants mixed in. They also have a sneaky week 15 home game vs. the Tennessee Titans to round off the AFC portion of this year’s slate.
I started pondering how head coach Mike McCarthy’s Packer teams have historically fared after the bye. Here is a quick glance, including this season’s first half:
|Season||Before Bye||After Bye||Result|
|2007||5-1||8-2||NFC Championship loss|
|2009||2-2||9-3||Wild card round loss|
|2010||4-3||6-3||Super Bowl win|
|2011||7-0||8-1||Divisional round loss|
|Totals*||31-13||38-20||4 playoff appearances|
*Totals do not include 2012 season
During McCarthy’s tenure, the team’s winning percentage before the bye is .705 and .655 after (through 2011). At first, it would appear that these teams have, on average, had more success during their season’s first half. However, you’ll also see that the Packers have played 38 of their regular season games before the bye and by this year’s end, will have played 65 after. That’s 27 more games played on the “back end” of their schedules.
Green Bay has an even win margin before and after the bye at a +18. If you remove the 2008 season, the Packers have had a winning record after their bye week in the rest of McCarthy’s seasons as head man.
In his six full seasons, the team has appeared in the postseason four times. The two seasons the team did not make a playoff appearance, they struggled more than usual during one of these two stretches. In 2006, McCarthy’s first, the team started out 1-4 and their hot finish wasn’t enough and they missed out. In 2008, the team appeared poised to make a run after starting out 4-3, but lost many of their last nine games by narrow margins and squandered several fourth quarter leads.
Based on the team’s history over the past seven seasons, the Packers have set themselves up for a solid chance at getting into the postseason tournament. There is a lot of football to be played and it stands to reason that they should keep themselves in the conversation for a division crown and contenders in the NFC.
The Pack will need a little help, however, if they want to bring home another division crown. Their long-time rival, the Chicago Bears have lost just one game so far and are the division leaders. The Packers will only face them once more during this regular season.
I checked the Bears’ mark over the same time period and they tend to fare better before their bye (.615) than afterwards (.544). This suggests there is a decent chance, if all goes according to the averages, that the Packers can leapfrog Chicago and snag the NFC North.
It’s noteworthy that Green Bay enters their bye week with the same mark (6-3) that they had in their Super Bowl championship season of 2010. There have already been many comparisons made between the two teams. Whether the 2012 team can put together a final stretch run similar or better than that of two seasons go remains to be seen.——————
Jason Perone is an independent sports blogger writing about the Packers on "AllGreenBayPackers.comFollow Jason at: Jason Perone
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