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April

Packers Will Overpay Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers will likely and soon become the NFL's highest-paid player

Rodgers will likely and soon become the NFL’s highest-paid player

A recent Tom Silverstein entry to the Packers blog on JSOnline suggested that when the Green Bay Packers finally ink quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a contract extension, they will likely front-load the deal.  The reason is that they have the cap space now and Rodgers is worth more now than he will be as he ages and his skills diminish.  It will also allow the team the needed salary cap space over the years and in order to remain competitive by retaining current players and acquring new ones.

Is Rodgers worth the $21-$25 million per year that the Packers will likely end up paying him?  I say no, but that is not because I think the Packers should try and low ball Rodgers nor does it mean that I think he shouldn’t be the league’s highest-paid player.  I simply don’t think any athlete is worth that kind of money.  That, however, is the only basis for the title.

I understand why Rodgers will get that kind of money and for the record, I’m all for Green Bay locking him up into his mid 30′s.  The Packers can’t afford to create a situation where Rodgers cuts off negotiations and decides to become a free agent after the 2013 season.  With a healthy and effective Aaron Rodgers, the Packers can accomplish anything.  Without him, they are more questions than answers.

Now, I said that I don’t think any athlete is worth the kind of money referenced above but again, that’s just my personal opinion.  I also am a believer that a team’s quarterback is the biggest key to competing for and winning a Super Bowl.  Take a look at the list of each Super Bowl-winning quarterback and see if you agree:

Super Bowl 1. Bart Starr (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 2. Bart Starr (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 3. Joe Namath (MVP), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 4. Len Dawson (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 5. John Unitas, 1 TD
Super Bowl 6. Roger Staubach (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 7. Bob Griese, 1 TD
Super Bowl 8. Bob Griese, 0 TDs
Super Bowl 9. Terry Bradshaw, 1 TD
Super Bowl 10. Terry Bradshaw, 2 TDs
Super Bowl 11. Ken Stabler, 1 TD
Super Bowl 12. Roger Staubach, 0 TDs
Super Bowl 13. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 14. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 15. Jim Plunkett (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 16. Joe Montana (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 17. Joe Theismann, 2 TDs,
Super Bowl 18. Jim Plunkett, 1 TD
Super Bowl 19. Joe Montana (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 20. Jim McMahon, 0 TDs
Super Bowl 21. Phil Simms (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 22. Doug Williams (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 23. Joe Montana, 2 TDs
Super Bowl 24. Joe Montana (MVP), 5 TDs
Super Bowl 25. Jeff Hostetler, 1 TD
Super Bowl 26. Mark Rypien (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman, O TDs
Super Bowl 29. Steve Young (MVP), 6 TDs
Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman, 1 TD
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre, 2 TDs
Super Bowl 32. John Elway, 0 TDs
Super Bowl 33. John Elway (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer, 1 TD
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson, 2 TDs
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady, 2 TDs
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger, 0 TDs
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger, 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD

25 of the 46 quarterbacks listed were also their Super Bowl’s Most Valuable Player.  That’s over 50%.  Even those who weren’t MVP were no slouch, minus a few.  Keep in mind that this list spans several different eras in NFL history.  Regardless of what the prevailing offensive and defensive trends have been, a great quarterback continues to be the X-factor on teams that win championships.

As I mentioned, Rodgers’ skills will eventually diminish, but he is nowhere near that time frame yet.  He’s the single most important piece to the Packers’ puzzle over the next five to seven years.  With that said, it stands to reason why Green Bay is set to pay Rodgers what they will.  It may also give some insight into why the Packers and General Manager Ted Thompson walked away from some big-name free agents last month.  Clearly, one of his priorities is retaining his current core players, Rodgers being atop that list.

With this management of the salary cap, the Packers seemingly can have their cake and eat it too.  They keep Rodgers, have a chance to win now and they will also have cap space to continue adding pieces and improving the roster while they have their elite, championship-caliber quarterback.

Winning a Super Bowl should be every team’s goal, each season.  Some teams consistently have a good chance of attaining that goal.  Others, in all honesty, are just kidding themselves.  Fortunately for Green Bay fans, the Packers have been in the former category for some time now and with more years added to Rodgers’ current deal, they should remain there.

Looking around the league at some teams who are forced to clean house, rebuild and re-tool their rosters, I would have to say that the Packers have done an above-average job of avoiding those pitfalls in recent years.  So if they need to “over pay” the single most important guy on the team in order to keep him in green & gold, so be it.  Break out the checkbook, Ted!

 

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Jason Perone is an independent sports blogger writing about the Packers on "AllGreenBayPackers.com

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17 Responses to “Packers Will Overpay Aaron Rodgers”

  1. PatMc says:

    I agree 100%. Open the wallet TT. I wonder if Murphy will need to co-sign the check?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  2. Ron LC says:

    NFL QB’s get paid. Witness Romo, who has won NOTHING, EVER. The 9er’s and Sea Chickens are playing with two QB’s in rookie contracts and are able to load up on talent in other positions. Two years from now they will be facing the same problem the rest of the league is facing.

    Yes AR must be paid because he’s earned it. Get it done and then try to get CM3 in the fold. Raji can wait he hasn’t earned what he’s making now. He needs to step up before any new contract is offered.

    In the longrun draft and devvelop will be the only option unless the owners agree to raise the “Cap” above the scheduled amounts. Don’t believe that’s goning to happen until the CBA runs out in 8 years (?).

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    • Dobber says:

      I would argue that the situations in SF and SEA will be more dire when they need to pay their current QBs.

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    • Stroh says:

      Correction. The 9ers and seahens can load up on overpaid mid level talent at other positions. Funny how no team that has tried that method his won a SB.

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2

    • Dobber says:

      Even if the cap balloons, all that will do is balloon salaries along with. There would be a year or two of “honeymoon” with all the found money, but that would be short-lived and all teams would be right back where they are now.

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  3. Tarynfor12 Tarynfor12 says:

    This contract for Rodgers may very well be doing a great service for other teams in the next few years.
    It may force a couple to severely overpay and or force them to lose their thought to be future guys by not paying them.
    Think of the consistancy and the numbers that will need to be in place for these so-called ‘revolutionizing QBs’,and add in the likelyhood of maybe one of them getting to a SB and winning before their contracts are due.

    The Kaepernicks,RG3′s,Wilsons,Lucks,Newtons have their work cut out for them.They may exceed the Romo deal but Owners will need some serious proof before handicapping the ability to sign other players if they exceed what Rodgers offers,gives and guarantees in numbers alone,much less the higher probability of playoff and SB runs of Rodgers.

    There will likely be at least one Owner that goes off the deep end,but the cap movement or lack of it,may already have teams on the path of failure and don’t even know it or simply become ignorant of it.

    I agree with AL about nobody is worth this kind of money,but when this kind of money needs to be paid,the right guy will be receiving it and the smarts,coupled with the Draft and Develope policy of Ted Thompson,has enabled the Packers to do it and benefit long term from it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  4. Big T says:

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 9

  5. Sanguinius says:

    I think the author makes a valid point about the money being paid is pretty obscene and nobody should be paid that sort of sum.

    But the reality is that this is a multi-billion dollar industry, players are going to be paid huge sums of money and that will only increase in the years to come.

    On a performance standpoint Rodgers will be the highest paid player in the NFL and he should be as he is the best player in the game at this moment in time.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    • Dobber says:

      I would alter that to say that he’s arguably the best player at the position that is most highly valued, and happens to have a contract coming up. He’s going to slide down the scale as other young QBs come off their rookie contracts and need to get paid.

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

      • Stroh says:

        Only if one of the young QBs has an MVP, SB MVP and SB ring. Rodgers could stay th highest paid for 2 – 5 years IMO.

        Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

        • DHazer says:

          So Rodgers had one good run in the playoffs and that was it. 3 years of 1 in done in the playoffs. I am still trying to figure out how Rodgers is the best at his position. I did some research and about the only thing he is best at his the bs stat of passer rating. I honestly believe Jordy Nelson should have been MVP of the Super Bowl.

          I saw watch out for the Andrew Luck and Russell Wilsons because they will get them some other weapons to use on their respective teams.

          Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2

          • Stroh says:

            Apparently your research was flawed! Go ask any objective person they’ll all tell your Rodgers is easily the best QB, if not best player period in the NFL. Remember I said objective! That rules out Minn, Chi and Det fans. Brady might get a couple votes too, but it’ll be Rodgers by a LANDSLIDE!

            Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  6. Chad Toporski Chad Toporski says:

    The problem is that – and this applies to more than quarterbacks – other teams overpay guys. It drives up prices, because even though a team can say “I don’t think that other guy is worth his contract,” the agent will say “My guy should be paid higher because he’s better, and if you won’t do it, then another team will.”

    Rodgers is in a slightly different boat, but recent QB contracts have screwed over the Packers in these negotiations.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    • Stroh says:

      I don’t think Flacco or Romo has dramatically affected Rodgers. Flacco got his deal, not unlike Brees right after winning a SB. In reality the Brees deal is as much if not more the barometer for Rodgers and he got paid 3 years ago. So when Rodgers came w/ the SB and SB MVP, just like Brees, then added the league MVP the following season, its a given Rodgers was gonna eclipse Brees’ 20M deal. That’s the case now. When Rodgers eclipsed anything Brees did and added the NFL MVP and 3 years have passed it created the market for Rodgers being higher paid than Brees.

      Flacco and Romo might have pushed it a bit higher, but it was already a given that Rodgers was going to be over 20M.

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    • Stroh says:

      Here’s what I think… Brees is Rodgers equal on short/intermediate routes, but lacks the deep ball of Rodgers, not too mention the NFL MVP award. Flacco is about Rodgers equal on deep routes but doesn’t have the short game Rodgers does, and again is missing the MVP.

      Flacco and Brees are about equals but they are very different QB styles and their teams reflect that. The Saints might rely a little more on Brees overall, but they are asked to do different things for their teams. However, you can’t take either and put them on the others team w/o a drop in performance. Brees has better numbers than Flacco, but I think that’s largely the system, not that he’s less talented.

      Baltimore also relies on Rice, the running game and a strong defense and that deflates Flacco’s numbers. Plus Brees completes a lot of short stuff that Flacco loses to Rice. Add the fact that Baltimore play a much more conservative offense and low scoring defense heavy style lowers Flacco’s numbers too.

      You could take Rodgers and put him in either NO or Balt and he would be as good as Brees or Flacco, AND he would add an element that each offense is missing. In NO, he would add the deep passes that Brees can’t make and in Balt, he would add the short game that Flacco lacks.

      So if you look from that perspective, that Brees and Flacco are pretty much equals, and Rodgers is clearly a notch above both, the Brees deal, becuz it was a couple years ago its what is really the driving force to push Rodgers contract in excess of the 22M contract we’re expecting now. Flacco just barely surpassed Brees due to the time elapsed from one to the other. Rodgers goes quite a bit higher cuz he’s simply better and more decorated than both.

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    • Stroh says:

      Here’s what I think… Brees is Rodgers equal on short/intermediate routes, but lacks the deep ball of Rodgers, not too mention the NFL MVP award. Flacco is about Rodgers equal on deep routes but doesn’t have the short game Rodgers does, and again is missing the MVP.

      Flacco and Brees are about equals but they are very different QB styles and their teams reflect that. The Saints might rely a little more on Brees overall, but they are asked to do different things for their teams. However, you can’t take either and put them on the others team w/o a drop in performance. Brees has better numbers than Flacco, but I think that’s largely the system, not that he’s less talented.

      Baltimore also relies on Rice, the running game and a strong defense and that deflates Flacco’s numbers. Plus Brees completes a lot of short stuff that Flacco loses to Rice. Add the fact that Baltimore play a much more conservative offense and low scoring defense heavy style lowers Flacco’s numbers too.

      You could take Rodgers and put him in either NO or Balt and he would be as good as Brees or Flacco, AND he would add an element that each offense is missing. In NO, he would add the deep passes that Brees can’t make and in Balt, he would add the short game that Flacco lacks.

      So if you look from that perspective, that Brees and Flacco are pretty much equals, and Rodgers is clearly a notch above both, the Brees deal, becuz it was a couple years ago its what is really the driving force to push Rodgers contract in excess of the 22M contract we’re expecting now. Flacco just barely surpassed Brees due to the time elapsed from one to the other. Rodgers goes quite a bit higher cuz he’s simply better and more decorated than both.

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  7. Simply a ‘nobrainer’ here. AR IS the man. He WILL, if kept healthy, ALWAYS see that the Pack are in the playoffs…no questions asked! PAY THE MAN TEDDY and move on to the draft upcoming!

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