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2012 NFL Draft

So here is part II of the reasons behind the draft picks (see part I here)  Again, I’m not assigning grades to the draft or to the players because I don’t believe you can tell whether or not a player will pan out within the first 30 something days.  What I am interested in is what the Packers were thinking of when they decided to draft a player; with that in mind, this is what I think the Packers want to accomplish with each draft pick and which player each rookie could be potentially be replacing.

Jeron McMillian – Projected Strong Safety – Round 4, Pick #38 (#133 overall) – Replaces Pat Lee

Rationale: First off let’s be honest here, I don’t think we have the next Nick Collins in McMillian; I was actually very surprised that McMillian was drafted at all by the Packers simply because he doesn’t fit into the mold of what the Packers look for in safeties.  The Packers are probably more interested in playing two free safeties (which there really wasn’t one this year in the draft), consider their preferred pairing of Collins and Morgan Burnett (who ironically never really played together): both have good ball skills and the ability to jump passing routes.  What McMillian does best is run support, which is almost the exact opposite of a ball hawk.   Then again even if McMillian is the next Collins I highly doubt that the Packers can afford to stick him out there in his first year, which is even more reason why I think Woodson will have to make the move to safety.  Read more... (1506 words + 1 image, estimated 6:01 mins reading time)

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   2012 NFL Draft

   Ted Thompson hasn’t gone crazy:  While many people were surprised by the fact that Thompson traded up several times, a good indication that Thompson is still following his MO is that he’s trolling the media about his “change” in personality.  If you’ve followed Thompson enough, you’d know that he’ll never tell anyone anything, so if he’s saying he’s doing things differently, chances are he really isn’t.  I now think Thompson wasn’t as averse to trading up in the past as we all thought; it simply didn’t make much sense in previous years to do so.  For instance right now Thompson probably has one of the best teams in the NFL in terms of depth so he can afford to trade picks to move up the draft but when Thompson took over in 2005 the team was in a salary cap nightmare and salary cap nightmares usually also mean that there were no quality backups on the team (or else why pay more for an aging veteran?).  Secondly, the rookie salary cap has altered the draft to a point where the picks at the top of the 1^st round are the most valuable (as they should be) and teams have adjusted accordingly by trading up in order to secure the best talent for them. In fact the majority of 1^st round draft picks ended up being selected by teams who were not the team originally award the pick.  I am a little surprised that Thompson was so quick to recognize the change and act upon it, which is why I now think that Thompson isn’t averse to trading up, he just could justify paying the price in the past.

 Read more... (825 words + 1 image, estimated 3:18 mins reading time)

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Hmmmmm, how many wide receivers can I find?

Here is the complete list of the Packers’2012 UDFA (undrafted free agent) signings, complete with rankings, height, weight and 40 yard dash times. We will be continually updating the list with additional player information or adding new signings, so check back in throughout the day.

Dale Moss, WR, South Dakota St – 6’3″ 220lbs, 4.39 40yd dash time -

Was the 30th ranked wide receiver with a “preferred free agent” grade by NFL Scouting.  At his Pro day, also had a 41.5 inch vertical, had a 10’10 broad jump. In 2011, caught 61 passes for 949 yards and 6 TDs in 10 games.

Darius Reynolds, WR, Iowa State – 6’0″ 209lbs, 4.54 40yd dash time -

Was the 79th ranked wide receiver with a “camp invitee” grade by NFL Scouting. In 2011, caught 43 passes for 695 yards and 7 TDs in 11 games.

Marcus Rivers, WR, Buffalo – 6’0″ 212lbs, 4.61 40yd dash time -

Was the 73rd ranked wide receiver with a “camp invitee” grade by NFL Scouting. In 2011, caught 60 passes for 615 yards and 2 TDs in 12 games.  Read more... (860 words + 1 image, estimated 3:26 mins reading time)

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“I’m convinced the articles I’ve seen like this are written by guys who have no actually gone through the trade value charts.  The Packers are going to be in a tough spot trying to trade up and will have to really overpay in number of selections to do it.”  

- Jeremy, April 14^th, 2012 12:27; in reference to the Packers trading picks to move back up into the 1^st.

Challenge accepted!

1. Would you believe me that overall, Ted Thompson isn’t very good at trading draft picks?
2. Would you believe that Ted Thompson has been suckered in by other teams that have called and accepted less than he originally had?
3. Would you believe that the single biggest mistake Ted Thompson has made on draft day was trading up for Clay Matthews III?

You’d think I was full of it, but its all true.

In reality, the trade value chart has become a staple of NFL draft fandom.  Some people swear by it while other people think its stupid to put a number on talent or potential.   But should we trust the chart and perhaps more importantly, does the chart make any sense in the modern era of football?  Read more... (1833 words + 2 images, estimated 7:20 mins reading time)

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Let’s play devil’s advocate one more time and look at why the Packers should trade up in the NFL draft.  This time I will be looking purely at the economics of the draft.  The classic example that Packer fans love in the 2005 NFL draft where Alex Smith was given the biggest rookie contract of all time at that point with $45.9 million deal with $24 million guaranteed while Aaron Rodgers only commanded a $7.7 million deal (less than Smith’s guaranteed contract) with $5.4 million guaranteed.  I’m not going to go in the relative value of Smith vs. Rodgers as players (as countless writers including myself have beaten the topic to death) but the take home message is that the Packers couldn’t lose economically: if Rodgers is the next Bart Starr, then they’ve got him at a discount for the first 5 years, if he’s decent the Packers paid a fair market value for him and if he’s a bust they can cut Rodgers without much penalty.  Smith on the other hand had to succeed; it was the only way to justify his massive contract.  Read more... (963 words + 1 image, estimated 3:51 mins reading time)

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Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is the NFC North's, and probably the NFL's, best draft choice since 2005.Introduction

Introduction
As Packers fans, we hear a lot about building through the draft and developing young players. I thought it would be interesting to examine each team in the NFC North to get a better idea of how drafted players impact current rosters.

So as baseball season gets underway, I decided to celebrate by writing over 2,000 words about the NFL draft.

I came up with a baseball theme (sort of) to accomplish this task. I break down each team’s drafts from 2005-11 by putting draftees in the below categories. I chose 2005-11 because it encompasses Ted Thompson’s time as Packers general manager. Here are the categories and an explanation of each:

Current Starters
This one should be obvious. Which players drafted from 2005-11 are current-day starters with the team that drafted them?

Home Runs
Players who have turned into pro-bowl caliber players or superstars.  Read more... (2235 words + 1 image, estimated 8:56 mins reading time)

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Clay Matthews at the NFL Combine

Let’s play devil’s advocate for a second and argue that Ted Thompson should trade up in the draft.  Now I’m not going to be crazy and say that Thompson should trade away every pick the team has in order to pull off a “Ricky Williams”, but moving some of the picks to get better position in the draft does have its benefits

My reasoning is that having too many draft picks can actually be detrimental to the team.  When Thompson took over operations from head coach/general manager Mike Sherman, the team was in a salary cap nightmare and as a result Thompson needed every draft pick badly in order to restock the roster with low-cost, high-reward players.  Also, since the team was stocked with players from the old regime, Thompson had no qualms getting rid of player in lieu of his own guys (all new GMs do this subconsciously if not very consciously) and the easiest way to do that was through the draft.  Read more... (1066 words + 1 image, estimated 4:16 mins reading time)

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