AllGreenBayPackers.Com

2012 NFL Draft

So here is part II of the reasons behind the draft picks (see part I here)  Again, I’m not assigning grades to the draft or to the players because I don’t believe you can tell whether or not a player will pan out within the first 30 something days.  What I am interested in is what the Packers were thinking of when they decided to draft a player; with that in mind, this is what I think the Packers want to accomplish with each draft pick and which player each rookie could be potentially be replacing.

Jeron McMillian – Projected Strong Safety – Round 4, Pick #38 (#133 overall) – Replaces Pat Lee

Rationale: First off let’s be honest here, I don’t think we have the next Nick Collins in McMillian; I was actually very surprised that McMillian was drafted at all by the Packers simply because he doesn’t fit into the mold of what the Packers look for in safeties.  The Packers are probably more interested in playing two free safeties (which there really wasn’t one this year in the draft), consider their preferred pairing of Collins and Morgan Burnett (who ironically never really played together): both have good ball skills and the ability to jump passing routes.  What McMillian does best is run support, which is almost the exact opposite of a ball hawk.   Then again even if McMillian is the next Collins I highly doubt that the Packers can afford to stick him out there in his first year, which is even more reason why I think Woodson will have to make the move to safety.  Read more... (1506 words + 1 image, estimated 6:01 mins reading time)

---- Get AddToAny

1. 

   2012 NFL Draft

   Ted Thompson hasn’t gone crazy:  While many people were surprised by the fact that Thompson traded up several times, a good indication that Thompson is still following his MO is that he’s trolling the media about his “change” in personality.  If you’ve followed Thompson enough, you’d know that he’ll never tell anyone anything, so if he’s saying he’s doing things differently, chances are he really isn’t.  I now think Thompson wasn’t as averse to trading up in the past as we all thought; it simply didn’t make much sense in previous years to do so.  For instance right now Thompson probably has one of the best teams in the NFL in terms of depth so he can afford to trade picks to move up the draft but when Thompson took over in 2005 the team was in a salary cap nightmare and salary cap nightmares usually also mean that there were no quality backups on the team (or else why pay more for an aging veteran?).  Secondly, the rookie salary cap has altered the draft to a point where the picks at the top of the 1^st round are the most valuable (as they should be) and teams have adjusted accordingly by trading up in order to secure the best talent for them. In fact the majority of 1^st round draft picks ended up being selected by teams who were not the team originally award the pick.  I am a little surprised that Thompson was so quick to recognize the change and act upon it, which is why I now think that Thompson isn’t averse to trading up, he just could justify paying the price in the past.

 Read more... (825 words + 1 image, estimated 3:18 mins reading time)

---- Get AddToAny

As the Packers draft analyst for DraftTek.com, I’ve done at least 20 mock drafts over the last 6 months. They’re not entirely mine, however, as the actual picks are made by computer. I get to input needs information, and can try to “grab” certain players or “lockout” players from contention.

Analysts for the other 31 teams all do the same thing. What results is the closest thing to a real draft simulation (they don’t call it a mock) I’ve seen anywhere. It ‘s quite unique and if you are not familiar with it, you really should check them out.

What’s even cooler is that on draft day, the “simulation” is updated within minutes of when each pick is selected. So, as the Packers are up at #28, it will re-run the simulation, eliminating the 27 other players already picked from contention for the Packers pick. Isn’t that rather amazing?

Well anyway, on to my personal mock draft, totaly devoid of any sense of reality and pure guesswork at it’s best:

2012 Packers Mock Draft  Read more... (757 words, estimated 3:02 mins reading time)

---- Get AddToAny

2012 NFL Draft

AllGreenBayPackers.com is ready to bring you the best in Packers’ NFL Draft Coverage. We’ll bring you detailed analysis on the players the Packers select, not from “draftniks” (not that there’s anything wrong with draftniks…), but from a professional scouting organization used by the teams themselves. Yes, you heard that right, real insider information from the true experts.

Here’s a little sample, their ranking of the top-20 wide receivers in the 2012 draft:

TOP-20 WIDE RECEIVERS  Read more... (649 words + 1 image, estimated 2:36 mins reading time)

---- Get AddToAny

By most accounts, Boise St. RB Doug Martin is a great talent. But most mock drafts have him falling out of the second round.

As the Green Bay Packers and the other 31 NFL teams rush to find a franchise quarterback and stockpile as many wide receivers, pass-catching tight ends and cover cornerbacks as possible, running backs are being left in the dust.

Passing rules today’s NFL, and that doesn’t appear to be changing any time soon. This fact hurts the value of running backs, making the position expendable in many cases. The movement to downgrade the running back position reminds me a little bit of the book Moneyball’s impact on drafting high school players in Major League Baseball.

In Moneyball, author Michael Lewis highlights how Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane avoided drafting 17- and 18-year-old high school kids, and instead tried to draft players with college experience. Beane thought high school kids were overvalued and much of their perceived value couldn’t be justified because, well, they were just high school kids.

After Moneyball was published, it didn’t take long for other teams to catch on and start thinking like Beane. Suddenly, high school players that may have been drafted early five years ago were being passed over for college prospects.  Read more... (501 words + 1 image, estimated 2:00 mins reading time)

---- Get AddToAny

What would Ted do?

It is April Fools’ Day 2012. And it seems to me to be just about the perfect time to be the perfect fool and attempt to predict the entire PACKERS Draft 2012. I might update this just before the actual Draft … then again maybe not. So pay attention, it may be your one and only chance to Mock me in my attempt to predict what TED THOMPSON might do.

Just a few explanations of how I do this. No, these are not excuses, just my own ground rules. The key is using my Regardless of Position prospect rankings list. I take each PACKERS Pick number and look at my list starting 3 ranked players before the actual Pick number. Anything from that number and beyond is fair game. For instance in Round One, where they pick at 28 I look for a player that might fit their needs, type of player profile and guys who “fit their scheme.” Then I make a Pick, i.e. guess, from players I have ranked 25 and on.  Read more... (974 words + 1 image, estimated 3:54 mins reading time)

---- Get AddToAny

Greg Gabriel at the National Football Post (a great website that I highly recommend) recently published an article entitled “How clubs strategize for free agency and the draft” which postulates an interesting idea that when picking at a certain position in the draft, a team can expect a certain number of players at a position to be picked ahead of them (if that sounds confusing please check out his article where he goes more indepth in the concept).  For instance, if a team just won the Super Bowl and is picking last in the 1^st round and is interested in drafting a quarterback, they can reasonably expect to see the 3^rd or 4^th best quarterback still available because on average 2-3 quarterbacks get drafted in the 1^st round.  If you think about it, there are only so many “can’t miss” 1^st round draft picks produced every year and usually their positions are distributed rather evenly (factored in with the nature of the NFL).  Obviously some years can be strong years for certain positions, like this year with defensive ends, but on average the amount of players in a certain position selected remains relatively constant.  Read more... (927 words + 1 image, estimated 3:42 mins reading time)

---- Get AddToAny