Category Archives: Mock Draft

9

April

Packing the Stats: Who can the Packers find at pick 21?

Packing the StatsIn 2012, Greg Gabriel postulated an interesting hypothesis that teams use historical draft data to predict how many players at a certain position will get drafted.  I did this analysis in 2012 based on the draft board and draft selection of the Packers back then and thought it was a pretty interesting exercise.  Basically, a quarterback (regardless of the specific player) is more likely to be drafted in the 1st round than say a kicker is.  Extrapolating that further, every draft can expect to see 2-3 quarterbacks drafted in the first round and expect 0 kickers to be drafted in the 1st round.  To narrow that down even further, the Packers can expect to see around 2 quarterbacks selected before pick 21 this year and hence if they were interested in drafting a quarterback, they could predict that the 3rd best quarterback will be available for them when they pick (assuming they don’t trade the pick of course).

Naturally, the Packers aren’t likely to pick a quarterback in the 1st round, but this hypothesis can be applied to any position.  Below is the number of players picked at their respective positions up to the 21st pick from 2005 (the first year of Ted Thompson’s tenure as the Packers GM) to last year.  Also note no punters or kickers have been picked in the top 21 selections so I’ve dropped those positions from the list.

 

Sheet2

I wouldn’t say the data is all that surprising, quarterbacks, defensive ends (i.e. pass rushers) and wide receivers are the most highly drafted players in the top 21 picks while centers, guards and tight end almost never get drafted in the 1st round.  There’s also a very striking decline in the number of running backs drafted in the 1st 21 picks, with last year being only the 2nd time in 9 years that a running back wasn’t selected.

The following list is composed of the top players from their respective positions based on current rankings from CBS Sports’ NFL draft page.  One of the biggest caveats is choosing which big board to go off of, I personally like CBS Sport’s because their rankings have been the closest to the actual draft compared to other large media draft rankings. Players names which are italicized are likely to have already been selected by pick 21 and players with their names in brackets meaning that position typically won’t be picked again by the 21st round (for instance, only 1 tight end has been picked higher than 21st in a single draft so the Packers would be breaking the trend a little by drafting a second tight end in the top 21 picks.

31

March

Packers Mock Draft with a Twist – Pigskin Paul

Pigskin Paul on the Packers and the NFL Draft.

Pigskin Paul – Draftnik

I am not a big fan of Mock Drafts. I always feel like they are a lot more work than they are worth. With trades and so many front office changes every year the process of putting together an accurate sample Mock Draft seems not only daunting, but highly speculative. And since I do not have inside team contacts it stacks the odds even more against my being able to project with any degree of certainty.

So as a compromise between my own needs and those of my readers/followers I will herein present a PACKERS Mock Draft for all 7 Rounds. But this is a very simplistic effort. I am going to take the Draft concept of taking the best available athlete at the pick to the extreme. Without consideration of any variable the effort below is based upon the team taking the player who falls at exactly their pick number based on my Regardless of Position prospect rankings as of March 28th.

So away we go:

Pick 21    DEE FORD/DE/OLB/AUBURN/6’2/252      If  FORD is as athletic as most of us feel he is, then one would think that DOM CAPERS would be able to find multiple roles and places to move FORD around. And to the delight of many PACKERS fans the team could potentially have a superior pass-rush compliment to CLAY MATTHEWS.

Pick 53    MORGAN MOSES/OT/VIRGINIA/6’6/315    This long, lean athlete could be the answer to their  long term OT quality issues because of constant injuries to BULAGA & SHERROD. Ideally this pick would be at OG, but that’s the way best available works out some times. MOSES should become a solid starter in the NFL in a year or two.

Pick 85    CRAIG LOSTON/S/LSU/6’1/215        I think LOSTON is a lot closer in talent and potential to ERIC REID, 49‘ers first rounder last year, than many people give him credit for. He’s a big hitter and if you look at his Combine numbers you realize he’s an NFL caliber athlete. He would immediately upgrade the Packers S corps.

Pick 98    JEREMY HILL/RB/LSU/6’1/235       This pick doesn’t make much sense at all since the team added young depth to its backfield in the last Draft. But when at his best he’s very similar of EDDIE LACY in running style. So much for “best available athlete” in its strictest terms.

16

March

2014 NFL Draft Guide: Green Bay Packers

It’s back, one of the best NFL Draft Guide values out there and the only one written SPECIFICALLY for Packers fans. This guide is brought to you by the fine folks at CheeseheadTV, with contributions from yours truly and other more talented writers and draftniks.  This Packers-centric guide to the 2014 NFL Draft is a must-have for any Packers fan.

You’ll get over 100 pages of feature articles, interviews, predictions and most importantly, player profiles and rankings. And this year, there will also be videos! It’s all catered to Packers fans and how each player would fit into Green Bay’s schemes, including their 3-4 defense. We also have a Packers-specific mock draft (note who predicted Datone Jones as the Packers’ first pick) and a breakdown of every position on the roster.

But don’t take my word for it, check out the 2013 guide in it’s entirety below.

 


 

Pretty cool, huh? Can you believe it’s only $5.99 if you pre-order order now? Just visit the Cheesehead TV shop to order and ensure your copy gets delivered to your inbox by April 1 and you don’t have to pay full price after our release date.

Here’s what the cover of the 2014 Guide looks like:

2014 NFL Draft Guide

2014 NFL Draft Guide

On Sale Here – Only $5.99

——————

Follow Jersey Al:


                    Add to Circleson Google+

Jersey Al Bracco is the founder and editor of AllGreenBayPackers.com, and the co-founder of Packers Talk Radio Network. He can be heard as one of the Co-Hosts on Cheesehead Radio and is the Green Bay Packers Draft Analyst for Drafttek.com.

——————

7

March

Play The Draft With Us – NFL Draft Contest

Is the boredom of no football on Sundays and endless conjecture about free agents, pro days, and draft picks getting on your nerves? Is the empty hole that is filled with fantasy football normally slowly eating away at your soul? Well my friend, this isn’t gonna help any of that, but the All Green Bay Packers staff would like to invite you to play Play The Draft instead!

For those of you that don’t know, every year we host a fantasy football league where we pit the writers, including our dear leader Jersey Al, with readers of the website.  We’re hoping to do something similar during the offseason with Play The Draft and myself, Jersey Al, Adam and Cory will take part. (It’s FREE to play)

Essentially the game works somewhat like stock trading (which might become real soon) but instead of stocks of companies you trade stocks of rookies looking to be drafted.  Everyone who plays will be given a same amount of money and then allowed to buy stocks of players they think will be drafted well and after the draft, each player will be “sold” at a value based on their draft selection.  For instance, last year I bought EJ Manuel stock at a middle second round value and when Manuel was drafted in the middle of the first, I made a huge profit.  You can also buy and sell players at any time, so again for instance I bought Geno Smith stock early on and sold off his stock for a profit before his reputation went down the tanks.  The value of a player’s stock will rise and fall based on real world news; so if a player has a great pro day his stock will rise or if he gets arrested, his value will fall (though he might become good value if it doesn’t effect his draft status).

Anyways, Play The Draft is a rather new game with last year being its first season, so at the end of the year we’d like to get some feedback from all the participants about whether or not the game was worth playing and whether we should set up a league next year.

There are 10 open spots for you readers. If you’d like to play with us, please comment below and be sure to enter your email address in the appropriate field.

16

February

Surviving Sunday: Packers News, Notes and Links for the Football Deprived

Surviving Sundays with no Packers Football

Surviving Sundays with no Packers Football

New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter announced this week that he will retire after the 2014 season. I’m not a Yankees fan and I usually root against the Bronx Bombers in the playoffs, but I always liked and respected Jeter.

Jeter was really good. He came across as a nice guy. He never got into legal trouble. He chased around beautiful women. And he projected an aura of coolness without coming across as overly arrogant. There really wasn’t anything to dislike about the guy.

As a Packers fan, what’s the closest comparison to Jeter in the NFL? What player caused the Packers a lot of grief over the years, but you still liked, respected, and even found yourself cheering for if he wasn’t playing the Packers?

Here are mine:

Barry Sanders
I don’t think you can call yourself a football fan if you didn’t enjoy watching Sanders. Yes, he had all the fancy footwork and juke and jive moves, but he would also put his head down and crash forward. An amazing spectacle on the field and a class act off of it.

Adrian Peterson
It’s absolutely terrorizing to watch Peterson manhandle the Packers defense. He’s a total mismatch for the light-hitting and reactionary Dom Capers D. But man, everything about Peterson just screams football. He’s the perfect package of grace, grit, explosiveness, elusiveness, resiliency and toughness.

Charles “Peanut” Tillman
It’s maddening to watch Tillman punch the ball out and force fumbles against the Packers. It’s a thing of beauty when he does it to other teams. Tillman has forced 40 fumbles in his 10-year career, including a mind-boggling 10 in 2012.

Larry Allen
This one is kind of obscure, but I always respected the Cowboys offensive line during their glory years and Allen was an absolute monster paving the way for Emmitt Smith. Allen could bench 705 pounds, squat 905 and became a hall-of-famer in 2013. He’s not the first player that comes to mind when thinking about players that gave the Packers trouble, but he deserves to be on the list.

Let me know who makes your list in the comments section.

Packers news, notes and links

16

July

Packers 1st Year Free Agent Scouting Report: Garth Gerhart, OC Arizona State/Cleveland Browns

Player Information:

  • Garth Gerhart, OC Arizona State
  • 6’1”/305 lbs
  • Hometown – Norco, California

Pro Day:

  • 40 yard: 5.38
  • 20 yard: 3.09
  • 10 yard: 1.90
  • Bench: 25
  • Vertical: 30.5
  • Broad: 96
  • Shuttle: 4.27
  • 3-cone: 7.63

Introduction:  While not an undrafted rookie, Garth Gerhart falls into the same category as a player who not many people know about on the Packers squad who has a good chance of making the team.  Garth, brother of current Vikings running back Toby Gerhart, went undrafted out of Arizona State in 2012 and was signed to the Browns practice squad, where he spend the entire season.   Gerhart was signed onto the Packers practice squad 4 days before their loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs.

Outside Analysis:

Pro Football Weekly: Good arm length and weight-room strength. Has a strong lower body and good base. Flashes a substantial punch. Works to position and get in the way. Smart and aware. Tough and competitive. Good character. Dependable, blue-collar worker. Experienced, three-year starter. Has NFL bloodlines.

Draft Insider: Zone-blocking lineman with marginal athletic skills. Incredibly quick in all aspects, uses effective body positioning and seals defenders from the action. Intelligent and effectively quarterbacks the offensive line. Works to get a pad on defenders and knocks them from their angle of attack.

 

Video:

Analysis:

  • #52, playing center
  • The shotgun snap error was mostly on him
  • It’s very interesting how many times ASU runs the bubble screen, I’m not sure if it’s assignment or coincidence, but Garth doesn’t block anyone on any of occasions shown. Then again, if it’s a bubble screen going to the sideline, what chance does any center have in making a block anyways?
  • Gets good movement up to the second level, but often ends up looking for someone to block.  Again is this coincidence?
  • Does a good job switching assignments and helping out his guards
  • At 3:22, Gerhart actually slides out and blocks the pass rushing defensive end, quite impressive (Ironically, the defensive end turns out to be none other than Nick Perry!)
  • Better technician than athlete, keeps his feet under him and usually stalemates his defender.  He’s not going to throw many pancake blocks or just wall off a defender, but will get the job done.
26

April

2013 NFL Mock Draft: Updated Day 2 Projection

Packers GM Ted Thompson

Packers GM Ted Thompson

It’s been said over and over, but while the 2013 NFL Draft lacks star power at the top, it’s extremely deep in rounds two and three. So that should make for an exciting Day 2 tonight.

You’ll notice plenty of first-round talent on the board between picks 33-62. There are even some players in the third round that had a shot at being selected in round one.

For the Packers, I’d be quite surprised if they don’t add a skill position player at some point today. Whether it’s running back, wide receiver, or both, the Packers should have plenty of options to add an impact player on Day 2. There wasn’t a single running back selected in round one, so Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, Johnathan Franklin and Le’Veon Bell are all still on the board. There’s a very good chance that one of those players will fall to the Packers at No. 55.

Sorry, Mel Kiper, but Montee Ball is not a first-round talent, and I don’t think he’ll be selected in the second round at all.

But if the Packers have their choice between several running backs, they’ll probably have to decide what’s more important: Do they a running back that would play immediately, or grabbing a wide receiver to groom for the future? Of course, they could go for a more immediate need and go with a safety or center, but I believe the value will be better at the end of the third round at those positions.

Ten is a really nice and even number. So here are ten potential Packers picks to keep an eye on today: UCLA RB Johnathan Franklin, Michigan St. RB Le’Veon Bell, Louisiana Tech WR Quinton Patton, North Carolina RB Giovani Bernard, Oregon St. WR Markus Wheaton, Southern Miss LB Jamie Collins, West Virginia WR Stedman Bailey, California C Brian Schwenke, North Carolina St. S Earl Wolff and Georgia Southern S J.J. Wilcox.

Now that we’re batting 1.00 after correctly predicting the Datone Jones pick, let’s see if we can nail the team’s Day 2 selections as well. Note: It probably won’t happen.

 

Second Round (Picks 33-62)

33. Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State

34. San Francisco 49ers: TE Zach Ertz, Stanford

35. Philadelphia Eagles: QB Geno Smith, West Virginia

36. Detroit Lions: OT Menelik Watson, Florida State