Category Archives: NFL Betting

21

January

Packers are Not Elite? Don’t Tell the Oddsmakers That

There’s been a plethora of discussion since the Packers’ ouster from the playoffs on whether they are still an elite team. Much of it was set off by a scathing article written by the venerable Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel seven days after the Packers’ Playoff loss.

McGinn railed about the “complacency” he sees within the Packers’ organization. He talked about an air of smugness among the Packers, as evidenced by their comments on overcoming adversity once the season was over. (McGinn maintains failure to win more games without Aaron Rodgers equals failing to overcome adversity)

There was much debate over his commentary and the question of whether the Packers are being left behind by teams like the 49ers and Seahawks, both of whom have young dynamic (and inexpensive) quarterbacks.

Unofficially, judging from the comments of readers, most fans tended to agree with McGinn’s commentary. There was a lot of negativity regarding the Packers’ future, especially with 20 players entering free agency this offseason. Seemingly ignored were the number of  games missed due to injury by key players on the Packers’ team. Matthews and Rodgers, two players responsible for 15% of the entire Packers payroll, missed 14 games between them.

One person who was not ignoring the facts was our own Adam Czech, who wrote a post titled, “The Packers are still among the NFL’s Elite (if they can stop being so fragile).” Adam states, “It’s hard to be elite when you play without your best offensive player, best defensive player, your starting left tackle, your top tight end, one of your best wide receivers and a really good special teams player for most of the season.”

Well, the oddsmakers must agree with Adam. One Las Vegas oddsmaker already has the Broncos, Seahawks and 49ers as 5-1 to win the 2015 Super Bowl. The Packers, Patriots and Saints are all tied for fourth at 12-1 odds. Full odds are as follows:

5-1: Broncos, 49ers, Seahawks.

12-1: Packers, Patriots, Saints.

20-1: Eagles.

22-1: Bengals, Chiefs, Panthers.

25-1: Colts, Steelers.

30-1: Bears, Chargers.

40-1: Cardinals, Cowboys, Falcons, Giants, Lions, Ravens.

50-1: Dolphins, Texans, Rams, Redskins.

75-1: Jets.

100-1: Bills, Browns, Buccaneers, Raiders, Titans, Vikings.

150-1: Jaguars.

Once the 2014 Super Bowl is played, most sports betting sites like SportsBettingOnline.ag will have odds for the Packers Super Bowl chances in 2015.

19

January

2013 NFL Playoffs Predictions, Conference Championships: AllGreenBayPackers.com

GAME PREDICTIONS
2013 NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships
Name Straight Up Against the Spread
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5.5)
Kris Burke Broncos Patriots
“Jersey” Al Bracco Patriots Patriots
Adam Czech Patriots Patriots
Marques Eversoll Broncos Patriots
Thomas Hobbes Broncos Patriots
Cory Jennerjohn Broncos Broncos
Jason Perone Broncos Patriots
Chad Toporski Broncos Patriots
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Kris Burke Seahawks 49ers
“Jersey” Al Bracco Seahawks 49ers
Adam Czech 49ers 49ers
Marques Eversoll 49ers 49ers
Thomas Hobbes Seahawks 49ers
Cory Jennerjohn Seahawks Seahawks
Jason Perone 49ers 49ers
Chad Toporski Seahawks Seahawks
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Chad Toporski, a Wisconsin native and current Pittsburgh resident, is a writer for AllGreenBayPackers.com. You can follow Chad on twitter at @ChadToporski

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11

January

2013 NFL Playoffs Predictions, Divisional Round: AllGreenBayPackers.com

GAME PREDICTIONS
2013 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round
Name Straight Up Against the Spread
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
Kris Burke Seahawks Saints
“Jersey” Al Bracco Seahawks Seahawks
Adam Czech Seachickens Saints
Marques Eversoll Seahawks Saints
Thomas Hobbes Seahawks Seahawks
Cory Jennerjohn Seahawks Saints
Jason Perone Seahawks Saints
Chad Toporski Seahawks Saints
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7)
Kris Burke Patriots Colts
“Jersey” Al Bracco Colts Colts
Adam Czech Colts Colts
Marques Eversoll Colts Colts
Thomas Hobbes Colts Colts
Cory Jennerjohn Patriots Patriots
Jason Perone Patriots Colts
Chad Toporski Colts Colts
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+1)
Kris Burke 49ers 49ers
“Jersey” Al Bracco 49ers 49ers
Adam Czech 49ers 49ers
Marques Eversoll 49ers 49ers
Thomas Hobbes Panthers Panthers
Cory Jennerjohn 49ers 49ers
Jason Perone Panthers Panthers
Chad Toporski Panthers Panthers
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9)
Kris Burke Broncos Chargers
“Jersey” Al Bracco Broncos Chargers
Adam Czech Broncos Chargers
Marques Eversoll Broncos Chargers
Thomas Hobbes Broncos Broncos
Cory Jennerjohn Broncos Chargers
Jason Perone Broncos Broncos
Chad Toporski Broncos Chargers
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Chad Toporski, a Wisconsin native and current Pittsburgh resident, is a writer for AllGreenBayPackers.com. You can follow Chad on twitter at @ChadToporski

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3

January

2013 NFL Playoffs Predictions, Wild Card Round: AllGreenBayPackers.com

GAME PREDICTIONS
2013 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round
Name Straight Up Against the Spread
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Kris Burke Chiefs Chiefs
“Jersey” Al Bracco Chiefs Chiefs
Adam Czech Colts Colts
Marques Eversoll Colts Colts
Thomas Hobbes Colts Chiefs
Cory Jennerjohn Chiefs Chiefs
Jason Perone Colts Colts
Chad Toporski Chiefs Chiefs
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
Kris Burke Saints Saints
“Jersey” Al Bracco Saints Saints
Adam Czech Eagles Saints
Marques Eversoll Saints Saints
Thomas Hobbes Saints Saints
Cory Jennerjohn Eagles Eagles
Jason Perone Saints Saints
Chad Toporski Eagles Eagles
San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
Kris Burke Chargers Chargers
“Jersey” Al Bracco Chargers Chargers
Adam Czech Bengals Chargers
Marques Eversoll Bengals Chargers
Thomas Hobbes Bengals Chargers
Cory Jennerjohn Bengals Chargers
Jason Perone Bengals Bengals
Chad Toporski Bengals Chargers
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (+2.5)
Kris Burke Packers Packers
“Jersey” Al Bracco Packers Packers
Adam Czech 49ers 49ers
Marques Eversoll Packers Packers
Thomas Hobbes Packers Packers
Cory Jennerjohn 49ers 49ers
Jason Perone Packers Packers
Chad Toporski 49ers Packers
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Chad Toporski, a Wisconsin native and current Pittsburgh resident, is a writer for AllGreenBayPackers.com. You can follow Chad on twitter at @ChadToporski

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27

August

Packers Over/Under Scenarios: Touchdowns, Contracts and Kickers

Packers WR James Jones says you better take the over on his line of 11 TDs this season.

Forget the over/under odds that Vegas sets for NFL betting. I’m opening a sports book that only accepts bets involving the Green Bay Packers.

Maybe I’ll name my joint the Acme Swindling Company. Or Hand-Over-All-Your-Green-and-Gold-to Me Inc. Either way, we’re going to have a good time — win lose or draw.

Below are some over/under scenarios involving the 2013 Packers. Let me know which side you’d wager on in the comments section.

(If you want to actually wager on these odds, have your people contact my people. And you better pay up if you lose. I’m going to be a father soon and I don’t want to lose valuable time with my son because I’m busting kneecaps and trying to collect from you deadbeats.)

James Jones: 11 touchdowns
It’s always difficult to predict touchdowns from year to year. A lot of it depends on opportunity and a little bit of luck. Last season, Calvin Johnson had 2,000 receiving yards but – thanks in large part to getting tackled at the 1-yard line five times – only five touchdowns, . Injuries to Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson gave Jones an opportunity last season. He seized his larger role in the offense and broke out with 14 touchdowns. Jones’ size and strength make him a nice target in the red zone, so I’m going to say he exceeds 11 touchdowns. It’d be quite the feat to reach 14 TDs again, but you never know.

Aaron Rodgers: 4,500 yards
Rodgers needed only 15 games to exceed 4,600 passing yards in his 2011 MVP season. Last season he “dipped” to 4,300 yards in 16 games. The Packers wide receiving corp and offensive line is already banged up and the season hasn’t even started yet. There also might be a renewed emphasis on running the ball with Eddie Lacy, so I’m going to say Rodgers stays under 4,500 passing yards — but not by much.

5

September

Green Bay Packers 2012 Over/Under Prop Bets

Jermichael Finley

How many receiving yards will Jermichael Finley have in 2012?

As the anticipation mounts for the first NFL regular season game of 2012, let’s take a look at some of the over/under proposition bets for the Green Bay Packers this year. We’ll also try to judge whether you should take the over or the under. The odds have been taken from Bovada Sportsbook.

(FAIR WARNING: I am not a gambler, nor do I pretend to be one on TV. Do not use this advice for gambling purposes, because I sure as heck won’t.)

Total Wins: 12

OVER – Call me a homer, but I think the Packers get at least 13 wins this season. It’s a difficult thing to do, but the Packers actually have a relatively easy schedule in 2012. For those who might not be as confident, you have the support of Football Outsiders, whose mean win projection for next season is 11.1 wins.

QB Aaron Rodgers

  • Total Passing Yards: 4,500
    OVER – Last season was the only time Rodgers has eclipsed the 4,500 mark; however, his total of 4,643 yards probably would have been higher had he played in Week 17. Rodgers is only getting better, and the talent around him is also improving. Look for him to light it up again in this ever-increasing passing league.
  • Total Passing TDs: 37.5
    OVER – 30, 28, 45. Those are Rodgers’ passing touchdown totals since 2009. Last year he took a big leap, and while he might not hit that total again, he should be around 40. The only thing that might eat into this is the bigger presence of a running attack.
  • Total Rushing TDs: 3.5
    UNDER – This is a really close one. Rodgers has at least 3 rushing touchdown in each of his past three seasons, but it’s that extra half a touchdown that makes it tough. My guess is that he’ll be running for fewer touchdowns with Benson more able to punch it in close to the endzone.
  • Total Interceptions: 9.5
    UNDER – Rodgers had 13 interceptions in 2008 and 11 in 2010, while he had 7 in 2009 and 6 last year. He makes such good decisions and takes such few risks that I can’t see him getting to 10 interceptions this year. According to Football Outsiders, his Adjusted Interceptions for 2011 was the lowest in the league at 4.
20

January

2011 NFL Conference Championships – Game Predictions from AllGreenBayPackers.com

GAME PREDICTIONS
2011 NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships
Name Straight Up
Against the Spread
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7.5)
Kris Burke Patriots Patriots
“Jersey” Al Bracco Ravens Ravens
Adam Czech Patriots Patriots
Thomas Hobbes Patriots Patriots
Zach Kruse Patriots Patriots
Chad Toporski Ravens Ravens
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Kris Burke 49ers 49ers
“Jersey” Al Bracco 49ers 49ers
Adam Czech Giants 49ers
Thomas Hobbes Giants Giants
Zach Kruse Giants Giants
Chad Toporski 49ers 49ers

Current Standings:

Chad Toporski, 12-4
“Jersey” Al Bracco, 10-6
Zach Kruse, 10-6
Thomas Hobbes, 9-7
Kris Burke, 5-11
Adam Czech, 5-3 *(missed Wild Card round)

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Chad Toporski, a Wisconsin native and current Pittsburgh resident, is a writer for AllGreenBayPackers.com. You can follow Chad on twitter at @ChadToporski

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