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2012 NFL Draft

So now that the NFL draft is officially over, tons of fans will converge on Packers web sites to air their grievances about not drafting a particular player or reaching for another.  They will hand out grades to teams and players alike; argue with other fans about what should have happened, and how the analysts have no idea what they are talking about.

I frankly am uninterested in such things; you’re typically not going to find out how good a draft class or a player is for 3-5 years and a player’s success has a lot to do with the team and the environment they get drafted in.

Nevertheless, every team drafts a player with a role in mind, and in this article I hope to analyze what role I think each player was drafted for; I am not concerning myself with what I think will likely happen, I have not placed a grade or an analysis of each player’s potential for a reason.  I’ve also included who I think the rookies will be replacing, keep in mind I don’t necessarily think that a rookie will take a veteran’s spot (for instance I have Casey Hayward replacing Charles Woodson) only what type of role that rookie is like to take.  Read more... (1641 words + 1 image, estimated 6:34 mins reading time)

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Let’s play devil’s advocate one more time and look at why the Packers should trade up in the NFL draft.  This time I will be looking purely at the economics of the draft.  The classic example that Packer fans love in the 2005 NFL draft where Alex Smith was given the biggest rookie contract of all time at that point with $45.9 million deal with $24 million guaranteed while Aaron Rodgers only commanded a $7.7 million deal (less than Smith’s guaranteed contract) with $5.4 million guaranteed.  I’m not going to go in the relative value of Smith vs. Rodgers as players (as countless writers including myself have beaten the topic to death) but the take home message is that the Packers couldn’t lose economically: if Rodgers is the next Bart Starr, then they’ve got him at a discount for the first 5 years, if he’s decent the Packers paid a fair market value for him and if he’s a bust they can cut Rodgers without much penalty.  Smith on the other hand had to succeed; it was the only way to justify his massive contract.  Read more... (963 words + 1 image, estimated 3:51 mins reading time)

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Surviving Sundays With No Packers Football

For those looking for Adam Czech, I’m sorry to report I am not him. I’ll be filling in for him in this edition of Surviving Sunday.

Ted Thompson continued his uncharacteristic off-season by continuing to be extremely active in free agency. The Packers signed Anthony Hargrove after the move was speculated last week. So far this off-season, the Packers have added Jeff Saturday, Daniel Muir, Anthony Hargrove, and re-signed Jermichael Finley and Jarrett Bush.

The Packers also brought in Dave Tollefson, formerly a New York Giant, for a visit that began on Thursday and continued into Saturday. Whether or not Tollefson is signed, it is clear Thompson is not playing around when it comes to revamping the Packers defense.

It was clear that the Packers defense needed reinforcements, but no one could have predicted just how active Thompson would be. It makes sense with how quickly Super Bowl windows open and close. The Packers’ window to compete for and win Super Bowls in the near future is open and Thompson’s activity shows the Packers aren’t interested in waiting around to strictly develop new talent on defense.  Read more... (917 words + 1 image, estimated 3:40 mins reading time)

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An artists's rendering of the proposed new Vikings stadium. Yes, it's another crappy dome.

What have the teams in the NFC North not named the Green Bay Packers been up to this offseason? Read on and find out.

Minnesota Vikings

Players Released: G Steve Hutchinson, G Anthony Herrera, CB Cedric Griffin, NT Remi Ayodele, TE Jim Kleinsasser (retired)

Free Agents Signed: TE John Carlson, FB Jerome Felton, RB Lex Hilliard, OL Geoff Schwartz, CB Zack Bowman

Re-Signings: DT Fred Evans, QB Sage Rosenfels, DL Letroy Guion, WR Devin Aromashodu

Holes on Roster: CB, S, LT, LG and WR

The Vikings ditched the Triangle of Authority and named Rick Spielman sole general manager not long after their 2011 season (mercifully) ended. Naturally, many Vikings fans expected Spielman to start signing free agents as soon as possible, anything to erase the memories of a 3-13 season that saw the Vikings take several steps backward while the Packers, Lions and Bears got better.

Those marquee free-agent signings never came. Instead, Spielman appears to be doing his best Ted Thompson impersonation by signing no-name free agents and talking about building through the draft. The one exception was signing TE John Carlson to a five-year, $25 million deal.  Read more... (1007 words + 1 image, estimated 4:02 mins reading time)

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Possibly the worst photoshop job on a NFL player ever

So who thinks Matt Flynn should have been franchised now?  I will be the first to admit that in my heart, I desperately wanted Flynn to be tagged and traded, and maybe while I’m dreaming some idiot team like the Raiders would offer a first rounder.  My head of course said otherwise, sure the potential reward is high, but so was the risk; what would happen if the Packers were stuck with a $14 million guaranteed check?

In the end, general manager Ted Thompson was right in letting Flynn go without a fight and Flynn signed a very conservative 3-year $26 million deal with $10 million guaranteed with the Seattle Seahawks.  More money that you or I will probably make in a lifetime, but loose change in comparison to the 5-year $90 million contract Peyton Manning just signed, or even the 5-year $60 million contract that Kevin Kolb signed last year.

My question is why fan perception of a player so different from a NFL GM?  Even the media, which presumably has a better idea of what NFL GMs are thinking are still more like fans when it comes to predicting player value (although this might have to do with the fact that the media caters to fans and not to NFL GMs, so they could be deliberately doing this).  Answer, the endowment effect.  Read more... (832 words + 1 image, estimated 3:20 mins reading time)

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The Bears traded two third-round picks for WR Brandon Marshall.

It’s 11:30 p.m. central time on Tuesday, March 13, 2012. I’m going to read a few pages in my book and go to bed. By the time this publishes around 7 a.m. central time on Wednesday, March 14, 2012, a bunch of other stuff might have happened and the news contained in this post might feel like it’s 10 years old.

Welcome to the start of NFL free agency.

A lot went down on Tuesday when 532 NFL players hit the open market. Let’s take a look at the developments that concern the Green Bay Packers:  Read more... (525 words + 1 image, estimated 2:06 mins reading time)

• Packers center Scott Wells is as good as gone according Packer Report. I was a big advocate for bringing Wells back, even if it meant overspending a little. Maybe it’s me accepting the fact that Wells is probably leaving, but I started changing my mind a couple days ago. Is it wise to overspend for a 31-year-old center that’s undersized and isn’t that great of a run blocker? Probably not, especially when there’s extensions for Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and Clay Matthews coming up in the near future. The Packers will miss Wells’s pass blocking. They’ll miss his command of the pre-snap calls just as much. But it’s not a devastating loss…I don’t think.

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Scott Wells is likely to hit free agency, which opens Tuesday.

Barring any late change of heart or mind, Green Bay Packers center Scott Wells will get to the start of free agency without a new contract from the Packers.

According to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Wells “appears headed for free agency barring a last-minute deal.” The sides are still far apart on what the value of Wells’ new contract should be.

In my opinion, the two sides are playing a game of chicken, with the Packers going low and Wells going high and waiting to see which side breaks first. My guess is that the Packers are going to have to give in some, but whether it’s enough to sign Wells, I don’t know. Wells remembers that the Packers gave up on him two years ago only to see him beat out Jason Spitz for the starting job and become one of the most valuable players on the offensive line.

It appears that Wells is wanting a contract that puts him on par with the top centers in the NFL, somewhere in the $7-8 million a year range. The Packers are almost certain not to give him that kind of money, especially considering Wells will be 32 at the end of 2012-13 season and is a touch undersized for the position.  Read more... (617 words + 1 image, estimated 2:28 mins reading time)

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