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How much would trading up for a player like Clay Matthews cost the Packers in 2012?

Ted Thompson and the Green Bay Packers have a lot of options in the 2012 NFL Draft with 12 overall selections, and they are probably going to need them with some of the defensive holes they need to fill.

Our own “Jersey” Al Bracco spent time presenting some First and Second Round trade-up scenarios that could possibly occur, and Thomas Hobbes looked into Thompson’s trading history in relationship to the Trade Value Chart (TVC).

A lot of people are wondering, though, does the old TVC still apply?

This will be the first draft under the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) between the NFL and NFLPA, and it comes with a shiny new set of rules for a rookie wage scale. Though we haven’t had a draft under these restrictions on pay, the 2011 rookie class did feel the effects of it when they were finally signed.

Below is a comparison of the contracted salaries of the top 10 picks in the 2010 and 2011 NFL Drafts. The numbers shown are in millions of dollars, and for simplicity in numbers, only the guaranteed amount has been recorded. It’s not a perfect barometer of the wage scale’s effects, but it should give you a general idea of what has happened:  Read more... (1087 words + 2 images, estimated 4:21 mins reading time)

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If only I had a mint julep right now...

The other day we looked at possible first round trades for the Packers. Today we dip into the second round for some moves that might makes sense for Green Bay:

2nd Round Trade #1

The Packers trade their 2nd (59), 4th (123) and 6th (12) to the Tennessee Titans for their 2nd (52) and seventh (227). The trade value numbers are 385 on the Packers side and 381 for the Titans.

The Packers watch the second round unfold and after the first 50 picks are taken, find there are some players on their board they had rated as early second round talent. Ted Thompson can’t pass up the opportunity and calls up the Titans, owners of only seven picks in this draft.

The Titans stock up on more picks, while the Packers move up seven spots to grab the surprise dropper of the second round. Perhaps Shea McClellin, Chris Polk, Harrison Smith or Jerel Worthy find their way onto the Packers’ roster.

2nd Round Trade #2

The Packers trade their 2nd (59), 3rd (90), 4th (123) and 6th (197) to the Jacksonville Jaguars for their 2nd (38). The trade value numbers are 512 on the Packers side and 520 for the Titans.  Read more... (447 words + 1 image, estimated 1:47 mins reading time)

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Hmmmmm, who can I hoodwink?

With the Packers already holding the maximum 12 picks in the upcoming 2012 NFL Draft, the odds would seem to favor seeing the Packers trade-up in one of the early rounds, in exchange for giving up multiple picks in later rounds.

Of course, with Ted Thompson, that’s only going to happen if a player he covets is unexpectedly within reach, but unlikely to last until the Packers’ next selection (ala Clay Matthews).

Coincidentally, this article comes on the heels of one by our own Thomas Hobbes on how the new CBA makes it more economically feasible to trade up.

So, using the trade value chart (those that wish to argue the relevance/accuracy of this chart should weigh in on the comments on this article, not here), lets take a look at a few trades that make sense for the Packers in Round1.

1st round trade #1:

The Packers trade their 1st (28), 3rd (90) and 4th (123) to the Tennessee Titans for their 1st (20). The trade value numbers are 849 on the Packers side and 850 for the Titans, almost a perfect match.  Read more... (499 words + 1 image, estimated 2:0 mins reading time)

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Let’s play devil’s advocate one more time and look at why the Packers should trade up in the NFL draft.  This time I will be looking purely at the economics of the draft.  The classic example that Packer fans love in the 2005 NFL draft where Alex Smith was given the biggest rookie contract of all time at that point with $45.9 million deal with $24 million guaranteed while Aaron Rodgers only commanded a $7.7 million deal (less than Smith’s guaranteed contract) with $5.4 million guaranteed.  I’m not going to go in the relative value of Smith vs. Rodgers as players (as countless writers including myself have beaten the topic to death) but the take home message is that the Packers couldn’t lose economically: if Rodgers is the next Bart Starr, then they’ve got him at a discount for the first 5 years, if he’s decent the Packers paid a fair market value for him and if he’s a bust they can cut Rodgers without much penalty.  Smith on the other hand had to succeed; it was the only way to justify his massive contract.  Read more... (963 words + 1 image, estimated 3:51 mins reading time)

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An artists's rendering of the proposed new Vikings stadium. Yes, it's another crappy dome.

What have the teams in the NFC North not named the Green Bay Packers been up to this offseason? Read on and find out.

Minnesota Vikings

Players Released: G Steve Hutchinson, G Anthony Herrera, CB Cedric Griffin, NT Remi Ayodele, TE Jim Kleinsasser (retired)

Free Agents Signed: TE John Carlson, FB Jerome Felton, RB Lex Hilliard, OL Geoff Schwartz, CB Zack Bowman

Re-Signings: DT Fred Evans, QB Sage Rosenfels, DL Letroy Guion, WR Devin Aromashodu

Holes on Roster: CB, S, LT, LG and WR

The Vikings ditched the Triangle of Authority and named Rick Spielman sole general manager not long after their 2011 season (mercifully) ended. Naturally, many Vikings fans expected Spielman to start signing free agents as soon as possible, anything to erase the memories of a 3-13 season that saw the Vikings take several steps backward while the Packers, Lions and Bears got better.

Those marquee free-agent signings never came. Instead, Spielman appears to be doing his best Ted Thompson impersonation by signing no-name free agents and talking about building through the draft. The one exception was signing TE John Carlson to a five-year, $25 million deal.  Read more... (1007 words + 1 image, estimated 4:02 mins reading time)

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Possibly the worst photoshop job on a NFL player ever

So who thinks Matt Flynn should have been franchised now?  I will be the first to admit that in my heart, I desperately wanted Flynn to be tagged and traded, and maybe while I’m dreaming some idiot team like the Raiders would offer a first rounder.  My head of course said otherwise, sure the potential reward is high, but so was the risk; what would happen if the Packers were stuck with a $14 million guaranteed check?

In the end, general manager Ted Thompson was right in letting Flynn go without a fight and Flynn signed a very conservative 3-year $26 million deal with $10 million guaranteed with the Seattle Seahawks.  More money that you or I will probably make in a lifetime, but loose change in comparison to the 5-year $90 million contract Peyton Manning just signed, or even the 5-year $60 million contract that Kevin Kolb signed last year.

My question is why fan perception of a player so different from a NFL GM?  Even the media, which presumably has a better idea of what NFL GMs are thinking are still more like fans when it comes to predicting player value (although this might have to do with the fact that the media caters to fans and not to NFL GMs, so they could be deliberately doing this).  Answer, the endowment effect.  Read more... (832 words + 1 image, estimated 3:20 mins reading time)

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Tebowmania in Wisconsin? Let's hope not.

If you are following me on Twitter, you know I’m a Tim Tebow guy.  I love the intangibles he brings to a team and the unique skill set he has.  Nothing makes me happier than someone going against the grain and succeed in doing so all while driving his detractors absolutely nuts.  He’s a great story, really.

That said, Tim Tebow has absolutely no business being on the Green Bay Packers roster.  Adam Schefter has tweeted a couple times about the Packers being a possible destination for Tebow now that the Denver Broncos have signed Peyton Manning.  I would implore GM Ted Thompson, however, to not even sniff around the former Gator star.

Why, you ask?

First off is the baggage that comes with Tebow.  Normally when someone talks about “baggage” in regards to a professional athlete, they’re talking about a checkered past or other skeletons in a guy’s closet.  This isn’t the case with Tebow.  Instead his “baggage” is an army of millions of blindly devoted Tebowmaniacs.  Read more... (789 words + 1 image, estimated 3:09 mins reading time)

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