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2012 NFL Draft

So now that the NFL draft is officially over, tons of fans will converge on Packers web sites to air their grievances about not drafting a particular player or reaching for another.  They will hand out grades to teams and players alike; argue with other fans about what should have happened, and how the analysts have no idea what they are talking about.

I frankly am uninterested in such things; you’re typically not going to find out how good a draft class or a player is for 3-5 years and a player’s success has a lot to do with the team and the environment they get drafted in.

Nevertheless, every team drafts a player with a role in mind, and in this article I hope to analyze what role I think each player was drafted for; I am not concerning myself with what I think will likely happen, I have not placed a grade or an analysis of each player’s potential for a reason.  I’ve also included who I think the rookies will be replacing, keep in mind I don’t necessarily think that a rookie will take a veteran’s spot (for instance I have Casey Hayward replacing Charles Woodson) only what type of role that rookie is like to take.  Read more... (1641 words + 1 image, estimated 6:34 mins reading time)

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New Packers D-lineman Jerel Worthy should help the team's feeble pass rush.

So all those holes on the Packers defense are patched now, right?

Someone to get after the quarterback opposite Clay Matthews? We got Nick Perry for that.

A defensive lineman to fill the void left by Cullen Jenkins? Say hello to Jerel Worthy.

Defensive backs that can cover and won’t shy away from making a tackle every now and then? Welcome to Green Bay, Casey Hayward and Jerron McMillian.

If only it was that simple. Unfortunately, none of the Packers shiny new toys acquired in the draft have played a snap in the NFL. As excited as Packers fans are to have so many new faces — especially on defense — there’s no guarantee that they’ll make the team any better.

Right now the only tangible asset these draft choices provide is hope. What else does a football team have to sell in April?

But let’s be extra positive and assume that the Packers aced this draft and everyone they selected in rounds 1-4 does what they’re supposed to do and makes the Packers better.  Read more... (639 words + 1 image, estimated 2:33 mins reading time)

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Was Nick Perry a hit or miss with the draftniks?

The first round of the 2012 NFL Draft is history.  As you probably know by now, the Green Bay Packers selected USC DE/OLB Nick Perry with the 28^th overall pick.

If you’ve been surfing the web this morning, you’ve probably read some opinions on the Packers’ selection from members of the Green Bay front office as well as draft “experts” from many media outlets.

If you haven’t read them yet, or you just want to come to one place to see many of them, here they are below.

Packers GM Ted Thompson:

“He played with his hand on the ground, but we’re convinced he’s athletic enough to play standing up and do some of the things we do. He’s a very physical guy.”

“Tremendous physical specimen. He runs a 4.5 or something like that. At the end of the day, thought he’d make a nice addition to our outside linebacking group. Believe he’s athletic enough to stand up. He can rush the passer.”  Read more... (1124 words + 1 image, estimated 4:30 mins reading time)

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2012 Packers First Round Pick DE/OLB Nick Perry and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell

Can lightning strike twice?

Packers general manager Ted Thompson hopes so after selecting USC defensive end/outside linebacker Nick Perry with the 28^th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.  For the second time in four years, the Packers used a first round pick on linebacker from Southern California.

The other pick? A certain Clay Matthews III, drafted in 2009.  Three years later, Thompson recognized his defense desperately needed another elite pass rusher to complement the Claymaker and once again took a player from USC.

Matthews has panned out very well for the Packers so far, so what does the future hold for Perry, who spent one season on the same team as Matthews at USC?

Well, to place Matthews-like expectations on Perry would be incredibly unfair.  No one expected the results Matthews produced in 2009 and since he and Perry played for the same college, some fans may be expecting Perry to duplicate Matthews’ rookie season.  Read more... (955 words + 1 image, estimated 3:49 mins reading time)

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Shea McClellin OLB Boise State

Both Shea McClellin and Whitney Mercilus could be considered late risers on most NFL draft boards, including the Packers’ board. Different types of late risers, but late risers nonetheless.

Mercilus had only two sacks and didn’t do much of anything at Illinois in 2009-10 before exploding for 16 sacks and nine forced fumbles in 2011. McClellin wasn’t a highly regarded recruit coming into Boise St., but kept improving and became a feared edge rusher and versatile hybrid LB/DE. While Mercilus was projected as a first-rounder as soon as “draft season” started, it took a while for McClellin to get the attention he deserved and start rising up boards.

If McClellin and Mercilus are still avalaible when the Packers pick in the first round, I would take McClellin. I think McClellin still has some room to grow as a pass rusher and I’d love to see him develop opposite of Clay Matthews. I also think McClellin is a better fit in Dom Capers’ defense. He can rush from the edge, drop into coverage, stunt up the middle and move around if needed as Capers disguises his coverages and schemes.  Read more... (278 words + 1 image, estimated 1:07 mins reading time)

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“I’m convinced the articles I’ve seen like this are written by guys who have no actually gone through the trade value charts.  The Packers are going to be in a tough spot trying to trade up and will have to really overpay in number of selections to do it.”  

- Jeremy, April 14^th, 2012 12:27; in reference to the Packers trading picks to move back up into the 1^st.

Challenge accepted!

1. Would you believe me that overall, Ted Thompson isn’t very good at trading draft picks?
2. Would you believe that Ted Thompson has been suckered in by other teams that have called and accepted less than he originally had?
3. Would you believe that the single biggest mistake Ted Thompson has made on draft day was trading up for Clay Matthews III?

You’d think I was full of it, but its all true.

In reality, the trade value chart has become a staple of NFL draft fandom.  Some people swear by it while other people think its stupid to put a number on talent or potential.   But should we trust the chart and perhaps more importantly, does the chart make any sense in the modern era of football?  Read more... (1833 words + 2 images, estimated 7:20 mins reading time)

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As you may know from reading my past blog posts, I love me some stats. I don’t think they’re the be-all and end-all when it comes to football, but I do think they are a useful tool to use when analyzing a team, a unit, or a player. Perhaps that’s why I enjoy following sites like Pro Football Focus (PFF) and Football Outsiders (FO).

These two groups of data crunchers put a lot of time and critical thought into representing the performance of players and teams in the form of numbers. Through careful observation and grading of every play of every football game of the year, these statisticians are able to eventually tell us which team’s offense is performing the best based on their results and the strength of the defenses they’ve played.  Or they can present a numerical “grade” for an individual player for something like “pass blocking efficiency.”

Like I said before, they provide a great tool for professional football analysis. We can use the information to either support what we think we’ve seen, or use it as a jumping off point to examine something further.  Read more... (1203 words + 1 image, estimated 4:49 mins reading time)

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