Welcome to Part 2 in the “Indicators of Success” series, in which I look at how strongly certain statistical categories correlate to the success of an NFL team. In the first part, we looked at defensive statistics, but as I concluded in that piece, we were only looking at one side of the coin. Today we’ll examine how well the offensive statistics compare to a team’s success, again using information from the 2011 season.
(Note: Look here for Part 1 on the defense)
Here is the raw data I collected from TeamRankings.com:
Raw offensive statistics for the 2011 season. Click on the image to open a larger resolution.
As I explained in my first post, the teams are ranked according to their 2012 NFL Draft order. While not a perfect ranking, it does take into account the number of wins each team had in addition to their success throughout the playoffs.
I used the same statistical categories as I did in Part 1 with the defense, but this time as applied to the team’s offense:
- Yards per Game (Yds/G)
- Points per Game (Pts/G)
- Red Zone Scoring Percentage, TD only (RZ%)
- Average Time of Possession (Avg ToP)
- 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (3rd Conv%)
- 1st Downs per Play (1st Dn/P)
- Giveaways / Turnovers per Game (TO/G)
As before, I’ll present you with a graph of each statistical category, followed by some brief analysis. Have a look:
Read more... (886 words + 9 images, estimated 3:33 mins reading time)
This is a preview of
Packing the Stats: Measuring Success in the NFL, Part 2: Offense
. Read the full post (886 words + 9 images, estimated 3:33 mins reading time)
Recently, fellow writer Michael Dulka wrote a post on the Green Bay Packers defense and how signs of improvement should give us hope for 2012. A couple of comments were made discussing the relevance of the “Yards per Game” statistic that has so stigmatized last season’s defensive unit. Specifically, commenter “Sven” had this to say:
. . . Or could it be that we are using the wrong kind of ruler to measure the Packers defense. touchdowns and turn-overs are what count more than yards. Ultimately winning is what counts, and they did that in spades . . .
It raises a valid and long-standing debate about what statistics really matter when it comes to indicating a team’s success or failure. Inevitably, pundits and fans alike will find the statistics that best suit their viewpoint. In the case of the Packers last season, pessimists pointed at the yards they gave up, while optimists grounded their arguments on the number of turnovers they generated.
So what statistic(s) really encapsulates a team’s success? Well, in an effort to shed some light on the subject, I went over to TeamRankings.com and compiled some information. Here’s the raw data I collected:
Raw defensive statistics for the 2011 season. Click on the image to open a larger resolution. Read more... (1128 words + 9 images, estimated 4:31 mins reading time)
This is a preview of
Packing the Stats: Measuring Success in the NFL, Part 1: Defense
. Read the full post (1128 words + 9 images, estimated 4:31 mins reading time)
Posted in 1 - Injuries
,2010 - 2011 Season
,2011 - 2012 Season
,2011 Regular Season
,B. J. Raji
,Packers Stock Report
,T. J. Lang
by Adam Czech
Aaron Rodgers stock fell a bit during the playoff loss to the Giants, but it remains high heading into next season.
The Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl and there will be no more meaningful football games for the next six months. That’s six months to reflect on how a team that lost twice to the Redskins during the regular season could go on to knock off the mighty Packers in the playoffs and keep rolling all the way to the Lombardi Trophy.
It’s hard to find a silver lining, but if you’re searching for one, take a few minutes and look over the Packers roster. It’s pretty good. Go ahead and cross off some of the players you think won’t be around next season, and it’s still pretty good. This team is going to contend again next season, and probably for the next couple of seasons after that. At least Packers fans have something to look forward to.
We’ve spent the last couple of weeks at AllGBP.com evaluating and grading every player on the Packers roster. Those report cards are done now, and it’s time to put this season in the rearview mirror.
To get started, I put together a full roster stock report based on each player’s status heading into next season. To categorize each player, I used my own opinion mixed with how I think the Packers view that player. Read more... (1632 words + 1 image, estimated 6:32 mins reading time)
This is a preview of
Packers Stock Report: 2011 End of Season Full Roster Edition
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Posted in 2011 Preseason
,2011 Training Camp
,Undrafted Free Agents
by Thomas Hobbes
I’m sure I’m going to be looking at this next week and wondering what the hell I was thinking, but below is my prediction for the starting 53 of the 2011 Green Bay Packers.
I tried to follow a couple of rules when making the roster:
- Drafted players almost always make the 53; only 6 drafted players (about one a year) have failed to make the roster during Thompson tenure. This years draft had a lot of picks so I’m guessing Thompsons cuts two, Ricky Elmore and Lawrence Guy so I tried to keep everyone else.
- I tried to replace players with similar roles, for instance I think Caleb Schlauderaff plays very similar to Jason Spitz which is why I chose him over some of the other linemen. Schlauderaff might not be the best player right now, but he has potential and the Packers have already shown that they like that kind of player (since they kept Spitz for 5 years), not to mention that he was drafted (see rule 1).
- I also tried to keep players as an insurance policy against 2012 free agency. Again Schlauderaff adds some depth behind Josh Sitton should the Packers somehow end up being unable to keep him.
Quarterback -3: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, Graham Harrell
No question that the Packers can’t get away with stashing Harrell on the practice squad, he’s played decent enough to be the backup quarterback on some teams (and maybe even the starter at San Francisco). Also the Packers need insurance against Matt Flynn next year so the Packers will have to keep 3 quarterbacks on their roster this year. Read more... (1355 words + 1 image, estimated 5:25 mins reading time)
This is a preview of
Thomas Hobbes: My Initial Packers 53-man Roster Prediction
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