24

April

Clay Matthews Is Not Worth His Contract

Last week Clay Matthews III signed a new 5-year extension with the Packers that made him the highest paid linebacker in the history of the NFL.  The press release announced that Matthews was awarded a $66 million extension that averages $13.2 million yearly, which just barely eclipses Dallas Cowboy outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware’s 2009 extension that averaged $13 million yearly. However, as the title has mentioned I personally don’t feel that the contract signed by Matthews is worth it.  Furthermore, I’m a little surprised that so many Packers fans are okay with the deal.

What Packers fans should be doing is jumping up and down with joy.

For all intents and purposes, the Packers just got away with “grand theft Matthews”.  While initially it looks like Matthews was rewarded handsomely for his services and now can claim to be the highest paid linebacker in NFL history, if you dive deeper into the structure of the deal, it’s pretty obvious that general manager Ted Thompson and lead contract negotiator Russ Ball really got the better end of the bargain.

5

March

Five Options for Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley

With the NFL rumor mill ablaze during the combine, multiple sources have reported/claimed/inferred/guessed/made up/straight up fabricated news that Greg Jennings was a candidate for the franchise tag (Jennings did not receive the tag after all that) and that the Packers were getting sick of Jermichael Finley’s off the field antics and on the field inconsistency are were looking to part ways with the tight end, whether that be from trade or ultimately by cutting him.
Both situations seemed a little odd to me from a logical perspective, so what I’ve done if come up with 5 options that the Packers could choose this offseason deal with Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley.  While Jennings and Finley are almost polar opposites in terms of their play style, I think they are intertwined when it comes to the economics of the NFL as well as the well-being of the Packers according to general manager Ted Thompson
  • Option 1: Packers do nothing; Greg Jennings enters free agency and Jermichael Finley plays out his contract: This is probably the most realistic situation given Jennings’ recent comments and the historical inactivity of general manager Ted Thompson when it comes to free agent signings.  Jennings believes he’s worth $12-14 million and I’m certain the Packers disagree with that; while Jennings isn’t likely to get a contract average even close to that, he will probably get some higher offers than what the Packers are willing to offer.  On the other hand, it appears as if the Packers are still mixed on their feelings about Jermichael Finley; his up and down performance coupled with his off the field antics (such as throwing his quarterback under the bus), have apparently left some in the Packers’ front office sour.  Unfortunately, Finley also possess the capability to single-handedly break a defense and the Packers will likely give the mercurial tight end one more year to prove he’s worth the money.  Probability: Very likely
13

August

Packers, T.J. Lang agree to 4-year extension

Aaron Rodgers and T.J. Lang

Aaron Rodgers and T.J. Lang

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Green Bay Packers have agreed to a four-year contract extension with left guard T.J. Lang.

Lang was a fourth-round draft pick out of Eastern Michigan in 2009, and he’s blossomed into a versatile and reliable offensive player with the Packers. After starting all 16 games at left guard last season, the Packers clearly felt that Lang was deserving of a long-term contract.

And although the Packers insist on their reluctance to play “musical chairs” on the offensive line, Lang is likely the team’s best option behind Marshall Newhouse at left tackle. If the Packers found themselves in a position without Newhouse in the regular season, they’d almost certainly do some sort of shifting, whether it be Lang or Bryan Bulaga to left tackle, instead of asking rookie Andrew Datko or journeyman Herb Taylor to protect Aaron Rodgers’s blindside.

The Packers still have bigger fish to fry, as Greg Jennings’s contract is set to expire after this season, but getting Lang’s deal extended before the season is certainly a step in the right direction.

Lang, 24, and right guard Josh Sitton, 26, form one of the league’s top duos at offensive guard. With Jeff Saturday set to replace Scott Wells at center, the interior of the Packers’ offensive line appears to be in great shape headed into 2012.

26

April

NFL Draft Economics: Draft Trading and the Rookie Wage Scale

How much would trading up for a player like Clay Matthews cost the Packers in 2012?

Ted Thompson and the Green Bay Packers have a lot of options in the 2012 NFL Draft with 12 overall selections, and they are probably going to need them with some of the defensive holes they need to fill.

Our own “Jersey” Al Bracco spent time presenting some First and Second Round trade-up scenarios that could possibly occur, and Thomas Hobbes looked into Thompson’s trading history in relationship to the Trade Value Chart (TVC).

A lot of people are wondering, though, does the old TVC still apply?

This will be the first draft under the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) between the NFL and NFLPA, and it comes with a shiny new set of rules for a rookie wage scale. Though we haven’t had a draft under these restrictions on pay, the 2011 rookie class did feel the effects of it when they were finally signed.

Below is a comparison of the contracted salaries of the top 10 picks in the 2010 and 2011 NFL Drafts. The numbers shown are in millions of dollars, and for simplicity in numbers, only the guaranteed amount has been recorded. It’s not a perfect barometer of the wage scale’s effects, but it should give you a general idea of what has happened:

SEL #

2010 Contract

2011 Contract

% Decrease

1

$50.00

$22.00

56.00%

2

$40.00

$21.00

47.50%

23

April

Report: Packers Resign OLB Erik Walden

Everyone take a deep breath and relax.

The Packers have announced that they have re-signed outside linebacker Erik Walden; details of the contract were not made available (which is a statement in itself), but considering the lack of interest Walden received during free agency and the fact that the signing is a mere 3 days before the NFL draft indicates that Walden was desperate to sign and probably took a 1 year minimum contract.

Walden was viewed as a potential starter after an impressive 2010 campaign, but literally saw the 2011 season fall apart as he started 15 games but ended up as a liability on defense, was replaced by Brad Jones during the playoffs and was the center of an ugly domestic violence dispute with his girlfriend that resulted in him having to spend Thanksgiving in jail.

My impression of the signing is more to take advantage of the larger roster size than anything to do with depth or playing time.  I’m sure if the Packers viewed Walden as either the starter or as a key backup, they wouldn’t have let him sit in free agency this long.   Right before the draft, basically all leverage is with the teams as 1) all the coveted players are probably already with new teams and 2) teams are hesitant to sign players as they waiting to see what players they can draft.  Walden and his agent probably figured that biting the bullet and signing a cheap contract with the Packers offered the best chance to compete for a spot.  As such, Walden’s contract does not likely include any signing bonus so his spot on the roster is anything but secure.

10

April

Playing Devil’s Advocate Part II: The Economics of the Packers Trading Up

Let’s play devil’s advocate one more time and look at why the Packers should trade up in the NFL draft.  This time I will be looking purely at the economics of the draft.  The classic example that Packer fans love in the 2005 NFL draft where Alex Smith was given the biggest rookie contract of all time at that point with $45.9 million deal with $24 million guaranteed while Aaron Rodgers only commanded a $7.7 million deal (less than Smith’s guaranteed contract) with $5.4 million guaranteed.  I’m not going to go in the relative value of Smith vs. Rodgers as players (as countless writers including myself have beaten the topic to death) but the take home message is that the Packers couldn’t lose economically: if Rodgers is the next Bart Starr, then they’ve got him at a discount for the first 5 years, if he’s decent the Packers paid a fair market value for him and if he’s a bust they can cut Rodgers without much penalty.  Smith on the other hand had to succeed; it was the only way to justify his massive contract.

11

October

Mason Crosby Earning Paycheck, Proving Doubters Wrong

Kicker Mason Crosby celebrates with teammates after nailing a 56-yard FG in Atlanta.

When Green Bay Packers placekicker Mason Crosby signed a new 5-year contract with the team back at the end of July, it came with some trepidation on the part of fans. Many people questioned the value of his brand new raise, while some criticized the re-signing all together. Throughout the first five games of the season, however, Crosby has performed to near perfection.

With Sunday night’s game against Atlanta in the books, Mason Crosby is now 9-for-9 on the year in field goal attempts and 20-for-20 in extra points, giving him a total of 47 points scored. For some comparison, he was only 7-for-10 in field goals after five games last year, and he is currently on par to break his personal best 141 points scored in his 2007 rookie season.

Crosby’s 56-yard field goal also ties his (and the franchise) record for longest completion, going back to the 2010 opener against the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Packers kicker has been under some intense scrutiny the past few years, though. Our own “Jersey” Al Bracco has written on this topic numerous times, but his most recent post – made just after Crosby signed his new contract – really broke through the misconceptions about his abilities.

In short, the numbers proved he has been an average kicker at best.