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A couple weeks ago, I presented some data in regard to some of the 3-4 defensive front prospects that the Green Bay Packers could be looking at in the upcoming 2013 NFL Draft. We calculated their “production ratios” based on big plays during their college years. This time around, we’re going to take some numbers from the NFL Combine to see how explosive some of these players are.

Taking another page from Pat Kirwan’s book, “Take Your Eye Off the Ball,” we’re going to take some of the combine measurable and plug them into a formula that will help to show how explosive these players are.

“On the snap of the ball,” writes Kirwan, “the front seven and the offensive line are going to engage physically. It’s a series of adjacent bar fights, and we need to be able to project who has the athleticism to win these all-important battles in the trenches. . . . A prospect with an Explosion Number of 70 or higher has my attention.”

So how do we calculate this number? Here’s the formula:

BENCH PRESS (reps) + VERTICAL LEAP (in.) + STANDING BROAD JUMP (ft.) = EXPLOSION NUMBER

The bench press, vertical jump, and broad jump are three workouts at the combine that specifically test a player’s raw strength, power, and explosiveness. They comprise the core qualities that a defensive lineman needs to do his job. Other workouts like the 40-yard dash and three-cone drill don’t really factor into this equation, because they relate much less to these trench battles.  Read more... (699 words + 2 images, estimated 2:48 mins reading time)

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I have a confession to make: I’m completely clueless when it comes to NFL draft prospects. Okay, well maybe not clueless, but I don’t follow college football, so it’s hard to really know much about these guys moving around the draft boards. Once a guy gets drafted by the Green Bay Packers, then I take the time to read up on his scouting report and check out the highlight reels.

That means you won’t be getting a lot from me when it comes to evaluating players. However, as we get closer to the 2013 NFL Draft, I’m going to post some statistics articles that relate to the current rookie prospects. The nice thing about statistics is that I don’t really have to be that intimate with the players’ individual skills and deficiencies. I can take some of their important numbers, crunch them together, and make something useful out of them.

Of course, this is where I make my disclaimer that statistics don’t tell the whole story. They’re a useful tool when evaluating performance, but they’re just one item in the toolbox. Just like the “measurables” from the NFL Combine and pro days, statistics need to be combined with the rest of the puzzle to make the complete picture. (Okay, maybe that was one too many analogies in a single paragraph.)  Read more... (793 words + 2 images, estimated 3:10 mins reading time)

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1) Introduction: Tramon Williams is a very different player in 2010 than he was in 2009. Williams was the second most penalized defensive back in the NFL in 2009, when he stepped into a starting role after Al Harris was lost for the season. He showed some signs of brilliance, but a lack of discipline in his technique, earning him the nickname “Admiral Armbar” from Football Outsiders. Well, he and assistant coach Joe Whitt addressed the technique issues in training camp, and “Admiral Armbar” has not been seen since.

2) Profile:

Tramon Vernell Williams

Position: DB
Height: 5-11    Weight: 191 lbs.

Born: March 16, 1983 in Houma, LA
College: Louisiana Tech (school history)    (Williams college stats)

Weighted Career AV (100-95-…): 19 (4692nd overall since 1950)
1-time Pro Bowler (fine print)

3) Expectations coming into the season for that player: Solid starter. One way or another, Tramon Williams was going to be counted on to be a starter. Even if Al Harris was able to return to action this season, the odds of him stepping in right away were slim. Tramon Williams was going to be the Packers’ starting right cornerback in 2010 – sink or swim. Besides changing his coverage techniques, Williams was also going to be expected to improve his tackling, which the Packers’ coaches were not satisfied with in 2009.  Read more... (627 words + 3 images, estimated 2:30 mins reading time)

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1) Introduction: Howard Green can thank for the Jenkins family for the 2010 season; while he started on the Redskins (only to be cut in the offseason), he was scooped by the Jets after starting nose tackle Kris Jenkins went on IR due to a ACL injury. But his time there was short lived as he was cut after the Jets bye week for purportedly coming back at 375 pounds. He chose to drive home in his pickup truck to New Orleans but when he hit the Louisiana border his agent called him to tell him to get his butt to Green Bay since the Packers had just claimed him up off waivers. More driving and a long flight back up north had Green back in Green, only this time to relieve some of the strain on Kris Jenkins’ injured little brother Cullen. Oh yah, and his first game was against the Jets too.

2) Profile:

Howard Green Jr.

Position: DT
Height: 6-2    Weight: 320 lbs.

Born: January 12, 1979 in Donaldsonville, LA
College: LSU (school history)
Drafted by the Houston Texans in the 6th round (190th overall) of the 2002 NFL Draft.  Read more... (669 words + 1 image, estimated 2:41 mins reading time)

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1) Introduction: Remember back in August when Mike McCarthy and Packers management kept preaching about “improving from within?” As usual, the Packers were not buyers in the free agent market, and most of us wondered how the team’s horrendous pass defense could possibly improve after a rough end to the 2009 season. We were even more skeptical once it became apparent that Sam Shields — an undrafted rookie who played cornerback for only one season in college — was going to be Green Bay’s nickel back. However, once the 2010 season concluded and the Packers hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, everyone that originally questioned why Shields was given such a key role was pointing to the rookie as a major reason why the Packers were world champs.

2) Profile:

Sam Shields

Position: DB
Height: 5-11    Weight: 184 lbs.

Born: December 8, 1987 in Sarasota, FL
College: Miami (FL)

3) Expectations coming into the season: Not screw up too badly. While people questioned Shields’ skills as a DB, nobody questioned his raw ability. It became apparent early in practice that Shields could run with any WR in the NFL and hold his own when it came to quickness. Consistency was the major question mark. Could Shields avoid major mistakes that would cancel out any positive plays he makes?  Read more... (483 words + 1 image, estimated 1:56 mins reading time)

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1) Introduction: AJ Hawk came in as a highly touted 5th overall selection in the 2006 NFL draft. Since then, his career can be described as “steady”; drafted as the most “NFL ready” player in his draft he has been just that, he usually is assignment sure and consistent in tackling and in coverage, but many people have called him out for not being the “impact player” warranting a top 5 pick. It will be interesting to see what the Packers do with perhaps their deepest position. All 4 inside linebackers have sizable contracts (with cover specialist Brandon Chillar receiving one last year and Desmond Bishop receiving one this year). Hawk’s contract included at $10 million base salary in the final year in order to stimulate an extension; he’s definitely not worth that much and it basically comes down to him or Nick Barnett (who has two years left on his contract).

2) Profile:

Aaron James Hawk

Position: LB
Height: 6-1    Weight: 245 lbs.

Born: January 6, 1984 in Centerville, OH
College: Ohio State (school history)    (Hawk college stats)
Drafted by the Green Bay Packers in the 1st round (5th overall) of the 2006 NFL Draft.

3) Expectations coming into the season for that player: Significant role player – Hawk was a starter in the base 3-4 defense, but much was made by the fact that Dom Capers didn’t play any base 3-4 in the season opener and thus Hawk was on the bench the entire game. With the rise of Tramon Williams and Sam Shields, Capers took advantage of having Charles Woodson in the slot and the nickel defense became more “base” than the base 3-4.  Read more... (635 words + 1 image, estimated 2:32 mins reading time)

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