11

November

How Have the Mike McCarthy Packers Fared After the Bye Week?

Packers Coach Mike McCarthy

Mike McCarthy’s Packers have historically fared well after the bye week

With no Green Bay Packers football this weekend, I turned my thinking to the rest of this regular season.  As was mentioned in Marques Eversoll’s column, the Packers’ remaining schedule after the bye week appears to be another tough road ahead.

Featured are most of their divisional matchups with a rematch of last year’s playoff game against the New York Giants mixed in.  They also have a sneaky week 15 home game vs. the Tennessee Titans to round off the AFC portion of this year’s slate.

I started pondering how head coach Mike McCarthy’s Packer teams have historically fared after the bye.  Here is a quick glance, including this season’s first half:

 Season  Before Bye  After Bye  Result
2006         1-4        7-4 No playoffs
2007         5-1        8-2 NFC Championship loss
2008           4-3        2-7 No playoffs
2009         2-2        9-3 Wild card round loss
2010         4-3        6-3 Super Bowl win
2011         7-0        8-1 Divisional round loss
2012         6-3         ?                 ?
Totals*     31-13    38-20 4 playoff appearances

*Totals do not include 2012 season

During McCarthy’s tenure, the team’s winning percentage before the bye is .705 and .655 after (through 2011).  At first, it would appear that these teams have, on average, had more success during their season’s first half.  However, you’ll also see that the Packers have played 38 of their regular season games before the bye and by this year’s end, will have played 65 after.  That’s 27 more games played on the “back end” of their schedules.

Green Bay has an even win margin before and after the bye at a +18.  If you remove the 2008 season, the Packers have had a winning record after their bye week in the rest of McCarthy’s seasons as head man.

In his six full seasons, the team has appeared in the postseason four times.  The two seasons the team did not make a playoff appearance, they struggled more than usual during one of these two stretches.  In 2006, McCarthy’s first, the team started out 1-4 and their hot finish wasn’t enough and they missed out.  In 2008, the team appeared poised to make a run after starting out 4-3, but lost many of their last nine games by narrow margins and squandered several fourth quarter leads.