What would Ted do?
It is April Fools’ Day 2012. And it seems to me to be just about the perfect time to be the perfect fool and attempt to predict the entire PACKERS Draft 2012. I might update this just before the actual Draft … then again maybe not. So pay attention, it may be your one and only chance to Mock me in my attempt to predict what TED THOMPSON might do.
Just a few explanations of how I do this. No, these are not excuses, just my own ground rules. The key is using my Regardless of Position prospect rankings list. I take each PACKERS Pick number and look at my list starting 3 ranked players before the actual Pick number. Anything from that number and beyond is fair game. For instance in Round One, where they pick at 28 I look for a player that might fit their needs, type of player profile and guys who “fit their scheme.” Then I make a Pick, i.e. guess, from players I have ranked 25 and on.
I try to take into account past history, like the fact that about half their selections will have played in the Senior Bowl each year. If I do the Mock and then go back to see only two players from the Mobile then I might as well start over. My first look is at relative talent and fit for schemes (like a NT not a DT) they currently employ. I do look at perceived roster needs within reason, and some variety of positions. In 12 Picks TED is not going to draft 4 OL, even though he loves those big uglies. I also look at players physical measurements. WHITEY will stray from the norm occasionally, but he’s not picking very many 5’9” CBs, or receivers with 8” hand spreads and/or 29”long arms. It’s also very likely that with double digit Picks in his quiver he is going to find a new QB for MIKE McCARTHY to work with, especially in a year like this when his back-up (FLYNN) left town as a Free Agent.
You catch my drift, so let’s get on with it so you can have a good laugh or two to start off the month of April. Read more... (974 words + 1 image, estimated 3:54 mins reading time)
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NFL Draft Predictions: Packers Mock Draft from Pigskin Paul
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Love them or hate them, NFL mock drafts are THE big thing this week. The problem with mock drafts is that they are static. Once the draft starts and 10 or so picks are made, a mock draft is basically useless. What good is a prediction of your team’s pick at that point? Not much at all.
But there is a better way. Picture a continuously updating NFL mock draft that changes within a few minutes of every pick. As a player comes off the board, the rest of the draft simulation is instantly updated to reflect that occurance.
Is this just a dream? A fantasy? No, it’s DraftTek.com
How does their mock draft work? First, from their web site:
About the Consensus Mock Draft
Draft Tek’s main product uses a computer model to generate a 7-round mock-up of the 2011 NFL Draft. The goal of Drafttek’s model is to produce a “plausible” imitation of the draft. An algorithm weighs the available players on a ranked “Big Board” against a matrix of team positional needs. Positions that are most likely to be addressed via the draft are identified with higher priority codes. Of course what is needed by a team may not be available; a team with a TE as the highest priority will think twice before selecting their #35 rated player at selection #10 in the first round. Thus the algorithm must often weigh between “reaching” for a position of high need versus selecting a better valued player at a position of lesser need.
In plain English, DraftTek is a fantastic marriage between technology and human knowledge. It takes a 3-prong approach. They scout college players and develop their own positional and Big Board player rankings. Every team has an “Analyst”, someone with extensive knowledge of that team and it’s positional needs. And finally there is the computer model that takes all of the data into account and determines the selection based on ranked needs and relative value.
First, some full disclosure. I am the Green Bay Packers Analyst for DraftTek.com. So I may be a little biased, but on the other hand, I don’t give out raves unless I am truly excited about something. I love the whole concept of what DraftTek is doing and every year it gets better as the model gets tweaked. Read more... (732 words + 3 images, estimated 2:56 mins reading time)
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An NFL Mock Draft Like No Other – Continuously Updating as the Picks are Made – DraftTek.com
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