21

January

Packers are Not Elite? Don’t Tell the Oddsmakers That

There’s been a plethora of discussion since the Packers’ ouster from the playoffs on whether they are still an elite team. Much of it was set off by a scathing article written by the venerable Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel seven days after the Packers’ Playoff loss.

McGinn railed about the “complacency” he sees within the Packers’ organization. He talked about an air of smugness among the Packers, as evidenced by their comments on overcoming adversity once the season was over. (McGinn maintains failure to win more games without Aaron Rodgers equals failing to overcome adversity)

There was much debate over his commentary and the question of whether the Packers are being left behind by teams like the 49ers and Seahawks, both of whom have young dynamic (and inexpensive) quarterbacks.

Unofficially, judging from the comments of readers, most fans tended to agree with McGinn’s commentary. There was a lot of negativity regarding the Packers’ future, especially with 20 players entering free agency this offseason. Seemingly ignored were the number of  games missed due to injury by key players on the Packers’ team. Matthews and Rodgers, two players responsible for 15% of the entire Packers payroll, missed 14 games between them.

One person who was not ignoring the facts was our own Adam Czech, who wrote a post titled, “The Packers are still among the NFL’s Elite (if they can stop being so fragile).” Adam states, “It’s hard to be elite when you play without your best offensive player, best defensive player, your starting left tackle, your top tight end, one of your best wide receivers and a really good special teams player for most of the season.”

Well, the oddsmakers must agree with Adam. One Las Vegas oddsmaker already has the Broncos, Seahawks and 49ers as 5-1 to win the 2015 Super Bowl. The Packers, Patriots and Saints are all tied for fourth at 12-1 odds. Full odds are as follows:

5-1: Broncos, 49ers, Seahawks.

12-1: Packers, Patriots, Saints.

20-1: Eagles.

22-1: Bengals, Chiefs, Panthers.

25-1: Colts, Steelers.

30-1: Bears, Chargers.

40-1: Cardinals, Cowboys, Falcons, Giants, Lions, Ravens.

50-1: Dolphins, Texans, Rams, Redskins.

75-1: Jets.

100-1: Bills, Browns, Buccaneers, Raiders, Titans, Vikings.

150-1: Jaguars.

Once the 2014 Super Bowl is played, most sports betting sites like SportsBettingOnline.ag will have odds for the Packers Super Bowl chances in 2015.

5

September

Green Bay Packers 2012 Over/Under Prop Bets

Jermichael Finley

How many receiving yards will Jermichael Finley have in 2012?

As the anticipation mounts for the first NFL regular season game of 2012, let’s take a look at some of the over/under proposition bets for the Green Bay Packers this year. We’ll also try to judge whether you should take the over or the under. The odds have been taken from Bovada Sportsbook.

(FAIR WARNING: I am not a gambler, nor do I pretend to be one on TV. Do not use this advice for gambling purposes, because I sure as heck won’t.)

Total Wins: 12

OVER – Call me a homer, but I think the Packers get at least 13 wins this season. It’s a difficult thing to do, but the Packers actually have a relatively easy schedule in 2012. For those who might not be as confident, you have the support of Football Outsiders, whose mean win projection for next season is 11.1 wins.

QB Aaron Rodgers

  • Total Passing Yards: 4,500
    OVER – Last season was the only time Rodgers has eclipsed the 4,500 mark; however, his total of 4,643 yards probably would have been higher had he played in Week 17. Rodgers is only getting better, and the talent around him is also improving. Look for him to light it up again in this ever-increasing passing league.
  • Total Passing TDs: 37.5
    OVER – 30, 28, 45. Those are Rodgers’ passing touchdown totals since 2009. Last year he took a big leap, and while he might not hit that total again, he should be around 40. The only thing that might eat into this is the bigger presence of a running attack.
  • Total Rushing TDs: 3.5
    UNDER – This is a really close one. Rodgers has at least 3 rushing touchdown in each of his past three seasons, but it’s that extra half a touchdown that makes it tough. My guess is that he’ll be running for fewer touchdowns with Benson more able to punch it in close to the endzone.
  • Total Interceptions: 9.5
    UNDER – Rodgers had 13 interceptions in 2008 and 11 in 2010, while he had 7 in 2009 and 6 last year. He makes such good decisions and takes such few risks that I can’t see him getting to 10 interceptions this year. According to Football Outsiders, his Adjusted Interceptions for 2011 was the lowest in the league at 4.