5

September

Green Bay Packers 2012 Over/Under Prop Bets

Jermichael Finley

How many receiving yards will Jermichael Finley have in 2012?

As the anticipation mounts for the first NFL regular season game of 2012, let’s take a look at some of the over/under proposition bets for the Green Bay Packers this year. We’ll also try to judge whether you should take the over or the under. The odds have been taken from Bovada Sportsbook.

(FAIR WARNING: I am not a gambler, nor do I pretend to be one on TV. Do not use this advice for gambling purposes, because I sure as heck won’t.)

Total Wins: 12

OVER – Call me a homer, but I think the Packers get at least 13 wins this season. It’s a difficult thing to do, but the Packers actually have a relatively easy schedule in 2012. For those who might not be as confident, you have the support of Football Outsiders, whose mean win projection for next season is 11.1 wins.

QB Aaron Rodgers

  • Total Passing Yards: 4,500
    OVER – Last season was the only time Rodgers has eclipsed the 4,500 mark; however, his total of 4,643 yards probably would have been higher had he played in Week 17. Rodgers is only getting better, and the talent around him is also improving. Look for him to light it up again in this ever-increasing passing league.
  • Total Passing TDs: 37.5
    OVER – 30, 28, 45. Those are Rodgers’ passing touchdown totals since 2009. Last year he took a big leap, and while he might not hit that total again, he should be around 40. The only thing that might eat into this is the bigger presence of a running attack.
  • Total Rushing TDs: 3.5
    UNDER – This is a really close one. Rodgers has at least 3 rushing touchdown in each of his past three seasons, but it’s that extra half a touchdown that makes it tough. My guess is that he’ll be running for fewer touchdowns with Benson more able to punch it in close to the endzone.
  • Total Interceptions: 9.5
    UNDER – Rodgers had 13 interceptions in 2008 and 11 in 2010, while he had 7 in 2009 and 6 last year. He makes such good decisions and takes such few risks that I can’t see him getting to 10 interceptions this year. According to Football Outsiders, his Adjusted Interceptions for 2011 was the lowest in the league at 4.