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Welcome to Part 2 in the “Indicators of Success” series, in which I look at how strongly certain statistical categories correlate to the success of an NFL team. In the first part, we looked at defensive statistics, but as I concluded in that piece, we were only looking at one side of the coin. Today we’ll examine how well the offensive statistics compare to a team’s success, again using information from the 2011 season.

(Note: Look here for Part 1 on the defense)

Here is the raw data I collected from TeamRankings.com:

Raw offensive statistics for the 2011 season. Click on the image to open a larger resolution.

As I explained in my first post, the teams are ranked according to their 2012 NFL Draft order. While not a perfect ranking, it does take into account the number of wins each team had in addition to their success throughout the playoffs.

I used the same statistical categories as I did in Part 1 with the defense, but this time as applied to the team’s offense:

• Yards per Game (Yds/G)
• Points per Game (Pts/G)
• Red Zone Scoring Percentage, TD only (RZ%)
• Average Time of Possession (Avg ToP)
• 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (3rd Conv%)
• 1st Downs per Play (1st Dn/P)
• Giveaways / Turnovers per Game (TO/G)

As before, I’ll present you with a graph of each statistical category, followed by some brief analysis. Have a look:

   Read more... (886 words + 9 images, estimated 3:33 mins reading time)

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Recently, fellow writer Michael Dulka wrote a post on the Green Bay Packers defense and how signs of improvement should give us hope for 2012.  A couple of comments were made discussing the relevance of the “Yards per Game” statistic that has so stigmatized last season’s defensive unit. Specifically, commenter “Sven” had this to say:

. . . Or could it be that we are using the wrong kind of ruler to measure the Packers defense. touchdowns and turn-overs are what count more than yards. Ultimately winning is what counts, and they did that in spades . . .

It raises a valid and long-standing debate about what statistics really matter when it comes to indicating a team’s success or failure. Inevitably, pundits and fans alike will find the statistics that best suit their viewpoint. In the case of the Packers last season, pessimists pointed at the yards they gave up, while optimists grounded their arguments on the number of turnovers they generated.

So what statistic(s) really encapsulates a team’s success? Well, in an effort to shed some light on the subject, I went over to TeamRankings.com and compiled some information. Here’s the raw data I collected:

Raw defensive statistics for the 2011 season. Click on the image to open a larger resolution.  Read more... (1128 words + 9 images, estimated 4:31 mins reading time)

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